TeaThe electoral performance of the Aam Aadmi Party in various state assembly elections over the years clearly indicates that its expansion has come at the expense of the Congress. Wherever the AAP has been able to expand its support base – Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat and Goa – there has been a sharp decline in the vote share of the Congress.
In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, AAP got 53.7 per cent votes and Congress’s vote share came down to 4.3 per cent. It is important to note that the Congress ruled Delhi for 15 years, getting 40.3 per cent votes in the 2008 assembly elections.
In the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, AAP won 92 assembly seats with 42 per cent vote share. The number of seats for the Congress was reduced to 18 and it could get only 23 percent of the vote. In both Delhi and Punjab, where the AAP is now the ruling party, the Congress has lost a large support base.
Even in the 2022 Gujarat assembly election, AAP got 12.9 per cent votes at the cost of Congress, whose vote share declined to 14.2 per cent compared to the last assembly election. In the same year, the AAP got 6.7 percent of the votes in Goa and the vote share of the Congress declined by 4.9 percent compared to the previous assembly election. The evidence is sufficient to suggest that the rise of AAP in Indian politics has eroded the support base of Congress in some states.
While this may be a reason why the Congress party may be apprehensive about forging an alliance with the AAP, an analysis of the vote share of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections suggests that even if the two parties join hands, they may still pose a challenge. It will be difficult. In states like Delhi and Gujarat, the BJP is unlikely to get any electoral advantage from an alliance with the AAP in Punjab.
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BJP and Lok Sabha Elections
The BJP had won 282 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by securing more than 50 per cent votes in states where AAP has a presence.
Let’s look at the situation on a state-by-state basis. In Gujarat, the BJP won all 26 Lok Sabha seats by securing more than 50 percent of the vote. It will be difficult for the AAP-Congress alliance to damage the BJP in Gujarat, unless there is a major negative trend against the BJP, which seems unlikely given the current voter mood in the state.
The situation remains the same in Delhi, where the BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2019 with a vote share of over 50 per cent.
Given its two consecutive victories in the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections with more than 50 per cent vote share, AAP can hope to create a wave in its favor in Delhi. But the results of the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections are good evidence to suggest that Delhi voters want the AAP to run the assembly but do not consider the party suitable for a role in the central government.
Congress got more votes than AAP from Delhi electorate in 2019 Loksabha election even after losing badly to AAP in assembly elections. The Congress was the runner-up in five of the seven Lok Sabha seats. AAP was the third party. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party was the second choice of voters only in South and North West Delhi.
In Punjab, out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, the Congress won eight, the BJP won Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won Ferozepur and Bathinda. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann won Sangrur with 37 per cent votes. In a triangular contest where Congress got 27.4 percent and SAD got 23.8 percent votes. AAP-Congress alliance could harm SAD in Bathinda as it won the seat with 41.1 per cent votes. And it may be difficult for the pair to challenge the SAD in Ferozepur as the Shiromani Akali Dal won there by securing 54.1 per cent votes. The BJP, then an ally of the Akali Dal, won Gurdaspur with a vote share of 50.1 per cent. In Hoshiarpur too, the BJP’s vote share of 42.5 per cent was slightly higher than the combined 42 per cent of the AAP and the Congress. Given this scenario, the AAP-Congress alliance may find it difficult to snatch seats from the BJP in Punjab as well.
The BJP won the North Goa seat in 2019 with a huge margin. He got 57.1 percent votes.
The voting pattern is different in Lok Sabha and Vidhansabha elections. Despite having the highest vote share in Delhi and Punjab, there is doubt about AAP getting the same support in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Given the BJP’s electoral dominance in Delhi, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, an alliance of AAP and Congress may not pose a challenge to the party unless there is a massive negative trend against it in these states.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor and Co-Director Lokniti-CSDS. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)