Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti Post-Election Survey 2022

The relatively high popularity of the central government, the positive impact of welfare schemes and, in the case of Uttar Pradesh, an intense religious polarization led to the BJP’s victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa. These are the findings of a post-election survey of the Center for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti, conducted in these three states and Punjab, which has been published exclusively. Hindu, (No post-election study was conducted in Manipur.)

Apart from these factors, a major factor was the effective bipolarity of competition in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab. Without such a sharp bipolarity, Goa gave only a small advantage to the BJP.

The survey found that voters were more satisfied with the central government than the state governments in the four states. In Punjab, there was a high level of dissatisfaction with both the central and state governments. While more than half of the respondents blamed the government for the deaths related to COVID-19 specifically in Punjab, a third in UP and even less in Uttarakhand did so. Respondents cited unemployment and price rise as major problems, but BJP’s victory in UP, Uttarakhand and Goa was due to votes cast by beneficiaries of free rations and cash transfers, among other factors. The party matters more than the candidate, which explains the strong support for the BJP in UP and Uttarakhand and for the AAP in Punjab. The candidate mattered more in Goa, which explained the tough race there.

The surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews at the elector’s home after the polls were held in randomly chosen constituencies. Hindu Is publishing the first state wise analysis with detailed description of survey results of Uttar Pradesh.

methodology

The surveys were conducted from February 15 to February 25 in Goa, February 21 to February 28 in Punjab, February 11 to March 9 in UP and February 15 to February 23 in Uttarakhand. The sampling design adopted was multi-stage systematic random sampling (SRS). Constituencies were chosen at random using a probability proportional to size method. Subsequently, four polling stations were selected within each sample constituency using the SRS method. In each polling station, 40 voters were randomly sampled from the electoral roll using the SRS method. Of these, 40, 26 interviews were targeted. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at voters’ homes after polling was held in their area. The questionnaire designed for the interview was a standardized semi-structured questionnaire. The interview lasted for an average of about 15-20 minutes. The raw sample obtained is weighted by gender, religion, locality and caste group based on 2011 census data. The final data set is also weighted by the actual vote shares secured by the major parties and alliances contesting elections in each state. All analyzes here are presented on a weighted data set.