New Delhi: In 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost 16 seats in Karnataka by a margin of less than 5,000 votes, according to an analysis of electoral data from that year’s assembly elections. Of these, the party lost 12 seats by a margin of less than 3,000 votes.
BJP won 104 out of 224 seats in the state and emerged as the single largest party. But the Congress, which won 78 seats, formed a post-poll alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), which won 37 seats, to form a government that lasted only 14 months.
Though the BJP came to power in 2019 thanks to 17 defectors from the Congress-JD(S) alliance, the data shows that these are 16 seats Where BJP lost because of Less than 5000 votes- Could have decisively turned the election in his favor.
With polling to be held on May 10 and counting of votes on May 13, things are a bit different this time, especially with smaller parties.
For example, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is set to contest 25 of the total 224 seats, while the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the banned Popular Front of India (PFI) The political branch of ), is preparing to field its candidates for 100 seats. The SDPI had claimed in 2018 that it had an “understanding” with the Congress.
These smaller parties are expected to eat into the Muslim votes of Congress and JD(S), which could be a major concern for the two major players in Karnataka.
Then, Mr. Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha (KRPP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are the parties.
Angry with the BJP, Reddy, a mining baron and former BJP minister, floated his own party, KRPP, last December. In February, it was announced that he would be contesting from Ballari against his brother, sitting BJP MLA Somashekara Reddy. Reddy’s candidature could spell trouble for the Congress as well, especially as he could split the anti-incumbency vote against the Bommai government.
Meanwhile, the AAP announced in January that it was going to field candidates on all 224 seats.
Political experts say that in seats where the victory margin was less in 2018, smaller parties are a matter of concern. And these 30 seats can make all the difference.
“In a close fight, even if they (smaller parties) get 3,000-4,000 votes, that is a lot. This is the role they play. They may not win elections, but can certainly change the situation in various constituencies,” said Narendra Pani, Bengaluru-based political analyst and faculty at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). Said impression.
It is also significant that in 2018, the Congress won 18 of the 30 seats where the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes. On the other hand, BJP won eight such seats and JD(S) three.
Former chief minister Siddaramaiah was one of the candidates who won by a margin of less than 2,000 votes. The Congress leader had contested from two seats, Badami and Chamundeshwari, that year. While he won Badami by 1,696 votes, he lost the Chamundeshwari seat, the seat he had previously represented, to JD(S)’s GT Deve Gowda by nearly 36,000 votes.
Chambi Puranik, retired professor of political science from the University of Mysore, told ThePrint that candidates for such seats have to be even more careful.
“If a particular candidate has performed well, connected with the people of the constituency, then yes, he definitely has a better chance,” he said. And if he hasn’t done it personally, well, (voters) can forget a party, but they see the person.’
Read also: If Congress needs a lesson in election management, it needs only to look at its Karnataka unit
defectors, ministers and fence sitters
Five of the 17 rebels who helped bring down the HD Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JD(S) government in 2019 — Yellapur MLA Arbel Hebbar Sivaram, Athani MLA Mahesh Kumathalli, Ranibennur MLA R. Shankar, Hirekerur MLA and then Agriculture Minister BC Patil and Maski MLA Pratap Gowda Patil won by less than 5,000 votes.
Additionally, JD(S)’s SR Mahesh, who has been representing the Krishnarajanagara seat since 2008, saw his victory margin narrow that year. The MLA, who won by a margin of 15,000 votes in 2013, saw his victory margin just under 1,700 in 2018.
Similarly, Congress MLAs M. Krishnappa (Vijayanagar) and R. Narendra (Hennur), who won his seats in 2008 and 2013 with significant margins (Krishnappa: 38,000 in 2008 and 11,500 in 2013; Narendra: 23,000 in 2008 and 32,600 in 2013). 2013), nearly crossing the finishing line in 2018, winning between 2,700 and over 3,500 votes.
Another heavyweight with a slim margin of victory in 2018 was former JD(S) president HK Kumaraswamy, who won his current seat Sakleshpur – which he had represented in 2008 and 2013 – by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.
Mumbai-Karnataka and the Lingayat factor
A significant number of seats that saw tough battles in 2018 were from the Kittur Karnataka region, formerly known as Mumbai-Karnataka. Today, the region comprises seven districts, namely Uttara Kannada, Belagavi, Dharwad, Vijayapura, Bagalkot, Gadag and Haveri.
In 2018, a dozen of the 30 seats where the margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes came from this region. Of these, Congress won eight seats and BJP won three seats.
One seat, Ranibennur, went to the Karnataka Pragyavantha Janata Party (KPJP) and won by a margin of 4,300 votes. The party was founded in 2017 by Puthurina Muthu D. Mahesh Gowda and uses an auto-rickshaw as its election symbol.
Politically, Kittur Kannada occupies an important place in the politics of Karnataka. Not only does it send 50 MLAs to the assembly, but the current chief minister, Basavaraj Bommai, a Lingayat, belongs to a region in which the community has a sizeable presence. A major player in Karnataka politics, he has traditionally been considered close to the BJP – mainly because of former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa, a prominent Lingayat leader.
In 2018, the BJP had lost seven seats in the region by a margin of less than 5,000 votes. In Athani, the then Congress candidate Mahesh Kumathalli defeated his nearest rival Laxman Sangappa Savadi by 2,331 votes.
“Lingayat voters are in sizeable numbers in all the districts except Uttara Kannada. Historically, they have been voting in the name of a veteran Lingayat leader, be it Virendra Patil (Congress) or BS Yediyurappa (BJP). Deccan Herald Belagavi-based political analyst Ashok Chandragi said on March 7.
The margin of victory was even smaller in the Hyderabad-Karnataka or Kalyana-Karnataka and South Karnataka regions with at least six seats.
close fights
The 2018 assembly saw a very small victory margin in five seats- Maski, Kundgol, Hirekrur, Pavagada and Aland. Here the margin of victory was less than one thousand votes.
In Maski, Congress candidate Pratap Gowda Patil, who later joined the BJP, won by 213 votes.
Similar narrow margins were also observed in Kundgol, Hirekerur and Pavagada where Congress candidates won by 634, 555 and 409 votes. The only other candidate with less victory was BJP’s Guttedar Subhash Rukmayya, who won Aland by 697 votes.
Patil eventually lost the seat in the 2021 bypoll to former BJP leader Basanagouda Turvihal, who switched to the Congress.
Despite this, there were many Congress leaders who won with a big margin. Prominent among them were R Akhand Srinivasamurthy, who won the Pulakeshinagar seat by a margin of 81,626 votes, and Congress veteran DK Shivakumar, who won Kanakapura by a margin of 79,909 seats.
Puranik believes that this election could be tough for the Congress candidates who lost last time. “If it is a Congress candidate who won with a small margin, then he is at higher risk. But due to the double engine government and the Modi-Yeddyurappa factor, the BJP candidate may have a better chance.
(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)
Read also: In Karnataka, Deve Gowda asks a powerful question: ‘Is a regional party needed or not?’