How events in America, Germany and China got Putin excited

Yet in trying to figure out why Mr. Putin is laying the groundwork for a move on Ukraine, and is doing so now, the fog reveals some important factors. He now wants to move on as he sees Ukraine slipping away from his grip. And the reasons he may think he is free to act are actually in three other countries: the US, Germany and China.

If this combination of forces is indeed helping Mr Putin run, they also demonstrate why he is proving difficult to refuse. He can feel both a sense of urgency and a fleeting moment of opportunity.

Inspiration begins within Ukraine itself. It is moving west because of Mr. Putin’s own sluggish demeanor. His invasion of Crimea, threats and threats, has produced the opposite of Mr. Putin’s intentions. He now feels the need to reverse the anti-Russian, pro-Western sentiment he promoted if Ukraine is to end up where Mr Putin thinks Russia orbits.

“He sees ties between the West and Ukraine getting stronger,” says Robert Gates, a former defense secretary and head of central intelligence and a longtime Russian analyst. The US and other Europeans are providing weapons and training. . [Ukraine] Even though not a member of NATO, security ties are getting stronger by the day. From their point of view, there is some urgency to act before events in Ukraine become irreversible.”

So there is reason to take action. But why should Mr. Putin think he can escape by attacking a neighbor’s sovereignty?

Begin with how he sees that American Americans are deeply divided among themselves, with some questioning the legitimacy of elections that are at the core of democracy. This shows that America’s power to take decisive action has been diminished by internal strife, and that the power of its democratic model has similarly diminished.

Meanwhile, three straight US presidents—Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now Joe Biden—have demonstrated through word and deed that Americans are tired of engagements abroad, especially military engagements. A military response by the US to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely – and the ugly withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan last year would have clouded Mr Putin’s mind even more.

Stefan Sestanovich, a Russian expert and former national security official who now teaches at Columbia University, says, “It’s hard to escape the idea that Biden’s failure of Afghanistan suggested to Putin that it was a man who had to move around. can be pushed.” Be wrong about that, but it’s easy to see how he could draw that conclusion.

At the same time, Germany is giving Mr. Putin reason to doubt that the West may actually be united in response to the Russian aggression. Germany’s decision to shut down all of its nuclear reactors by the end of 2022 has made it more dependent than ever on Russian energy imports, meaning Mr Putin’s leverage over Berlin may be at its peak.

German officials are talking desperately about standing with Ukraine, but their actions strike a different tone. When small Estonia, with a population of just over one million compared to 83 million in Germany and 144 million in Russia, wanted to send arms to Ukraine in a show of solidarity, Germany refused to issue permits for the export of German-made weapons. Gave. ,

Meanwhile, Mr. Putin’s warm relations with China give him reason to think that Beijing will help him overcome any Western economic sanctions that have been imposed after his incursion into Ukraine. Mr. Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have demonstrated their friendship in recent months, and Mr. Putin will be a high-profile guest at the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics.

China and Russia have a common interest in undermining the US, and the Russian success in Ukraine could prove to be a trial run for the Chinese move on Taiwan. Mr Gates says he would be surprised if talks about China’s offer of aid to offset Western economic sanctions against Russia have not happened.

Such a calculation can certainly prove to be a wrong calculation; Already Russian provocations are forcing Western allies to increase their military presence around Russia, which should be contrary to Mr Putin’s wishes.

“Putin is still making a really big mistake, guaranteeing that the rest of his time in power, the remainder of Russia’s fossil-fuel dominance, the rest of his attempts to make an impact in the post-Soviet space will be all the more troubling Mr. Sestanovich says, “He must be.” Still, if Mr. Putin is looking for reasons to think he can do away with something, they are put before him.