How narratives could change in 2024

In a democracy, narratives that work for one party at a given point in time can go to their heads, especially during elections.

change perception

This looks like a possibility with general elections scheduled for 2024. Much of the hype about the popularity of the Bharatiya Janata Party has centered around the personality of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This government looks decisive and authoritative as Mr. Modi presents a larger than life image. When he was elected, he looked like a leader who could think out of the box and deliver concrete results. Mr. Modi’s impressive personality was appreciated by the expectation of quick and dramatic results from him and his government.

But now, closer to 2024, we would be delusional to think that we are doing well. There has been no dramatic result; Opportunities have not grown as promised; And wishes remain unfulfilled. People’s image of the prime minister being authoritarian can turn into a perception that he is authoritarian. Judgment sometimes comes across as arrogance; Inability to take people along. This is reflected in the failure of cooperative federalism and the inability to achieve a policy consensus by taking non-BJP chief ministers along.

People always look for justifications as to why they thought the way they did in the past. Some may feel that they have gone wrong in their assessment of Mr. Modi and start comparing him with all other politicians. But the majority may say that he is a well thought leader, he is not as capable as they believed, or that he still intends to do well, but the circle around him does not allow him and so we have to take the entire establishment. needs to be changed. Punish the people around Mr Modi, not Mr Modi himself.

Just as the narrative around the leader may change, so may the story of mobilization around the Hindu identity. Being Hindu in many ways, under the BJP, being aggressive against “unfairly pampered minorities”. Many people consider themselves victims in their own land. The regime has done well in terms of psychologically empowering the community by mobilizing caste and legalizing inequality through anti-elitist rhetoric. Now Hindus cannot claim to be “weak, powerless and helpless” because “they” have been in power for almost 10 years.

However, the Modi regime continues to oscillate between portraying Hindus as insecure (by creating a deep sense of insecurity among them) and being victorious (by urging them to fight against an ‘adverse’). The BJP advocated “return of Kashmiri Pandits to the land of their ancestors with full dignity, security and assured livelihood” in its 2014 election manifesto and “safe return of Kashmiri Pandits” as a part of its 2019 election manifesto. But after the failure of demonetisation and the dilution of Article 370 in defeating terrorism, we are seeing a rise in militancy, and Kashmiri Pandits feeling more vulnerable than before.

hope and frenzy

The regime may have succeeded in marginalizing the Muslims, but it has not succeeded in making the majority of Hindus feel financially and physically secure and socially dynamic. In such a situation, calling Hindus arrogant or aggressive does not work. Issues like Ram Mandir can arouse emotion but not passion. The BJP’s campaign works when emotions bordering on frenzy are turned into aggressive passion. The response to the Balakot incident in 2019 and the party’s subsequent victory in the elections was an example of this. To capture collective passion, people need a deep sense of hope ( good dayBut despite the politicians’ best efforts and supposedly clear intentions, trying to create such passion is not working.

We saw this during the Delhi Assembly elections. The final phase of the election campaign turned particularly outrageous with BJP leaders calling anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act protesters “traitors” and demanding to shoot them, and the party’s call to turn the election into another Hindu-Muslim battle. was trying , No amount of frenzy and fear helped. In fact, as Home Minister Amit Shah said after the election, going crazy can backfire for the BJP. Something similar happened during the assembly elections in West Bengal. The BJP had an advantage as Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was trying her best to beat the anti-incumbency wave. But after the first two visits, catcalls by the Prime Minister as part of the campaign, the slogan war of the two parties pitting ‘Jai Shri Ram’ against ‘Jai Maa Kali’, and the polarization campaign, among other reasons, appealed to Bengalis. made. The edgy he chose the familiar over the unknown, even if he was not completely satisfied with it. Muslims have been rendered virtually invisible, so it is difficult to present them as potential threats and win elections.

attitude towards opposition

In the end, opposition parties remain clueless, without a narrative, but are being framed, implicated in cases and humiliated in Parliament. When trust in the government is high, it seems that these actions are being done with the right purpose, even if they seem harsh. People enjoy laughter even at the expense of the leaders of the opposition – this is their way of ridiculing the “social elite”. But when people begin to feel a sort of existential crisis, and questions of falling standard of living arise, they unnecessarily target the opposition. They feel that a weak opposition weakens democracy. This feeling is starting to emerge. Many were happy and the opposition was happy that JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar had rocked the NDA boat in Bihar.

People are still grappling with the reality that those they trusted have failed and those they don’t trust are promising something better. Promises are being kept to an extent by parties like Aam Aadmi Party. The results of the upcoming assembly elections will give an indication in the time to come.

Ajay Gudavarthi, Professor, Center for Political Studies, JNU, New Delhi