The tide of the Russo-Ukraine war has just turned. Over the past few days, Ukraine has launched a devastating counter-offensive against Russian forces, reclaiming its territory and pushing the enemy back in some areas. Mint explains what could be the turning point in this war.
Where was the war up to this point?
While Moscow began the war with an attempt to take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, it abandoned its target in April. Thereafter, it focused its attention on eastern Ukraine, with a particular focus on capturing the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Moscow continued to fight in the north east of the country (where major provinces such as Kharkiv are located) and south (near Crimea).
This is where the second phase of the war began. The Russian army completed its conquest of Luhansk province and after fierce fighting captured major southern cities such as Mariupol. However, in recent months, neither Ukraine nor Russia has managed to achieve large-scale territorial gains. Experts began to speculate that the war had entered a period of war in which neither side was able to decisively turn the tide of the war.
What actually happened?
After months of preparation, Ukraine launched a massive counter-offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine in late August. Over the past few days, the Eastern campaign has been disastrously effective. Ukraine claims to have captured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory from the Russian military. It has also taken back major cities such as Izium, which serves as a major logistics hub for Moscow’s military efforts in eastern Ukraine. Russian soldiers have fled as their leaders look for a new line of defense in the region.
Ukraine has also taken the lead in pushing back its opponents in southern Ukraine as it seeks to take the strategic town of Kherson.
How did Ukraine succeed?
Part of Ukraine’s success stemmed from Russian failures. Renowned expert Michael Kaufman has cited Russian intelligence failures as a major reason for the region’s massive losses. Military intelligence did not understand the importance of Ukraine’s military build-up in the region and instead moved troops to southern Ukraine where Ukraine was widely expected to launch a major campaign to retake the important city of Kherson. . In addition, Russia lost its best units in the early stages of the war. The people living in eastern Ukraine are believed to have been a badly trained and recently recruited force.
Ukraine has also succeeded because of the support of its powerful supporters in the West. The supply of advanced weapons, in particular the US HIMARS missile system, has allowed Kyiv’s forces to inflict devastating damage on Russian infrastructure and supply depots.
Why are these changes important?
For one, Ukraine has managed to generate real momentum with its invasions. With the initiative on his part, President Zelensky and his allies in Kyiv will now define the terms of the battle. As Kyiv’s Western supporters suffer under pressure from inflation and high energy prices, Ukraine needed a victory to guarantee continued support.
Russia’s loss of territory and manpower in eastern Ukraine is significant for two reasons. First, the loss of major logistics centers such as Izyum and Kupiansk would seriously affect Moscow’s ability to attack cities such as Kharkiv and operate as a formidable force in the region. Second, Ukraine’s success reveals a shortcoming in Moscow’s armour: its inability to provide weapons and quality manpower. Reports of Russia’s widespread receipt of weapons from North Korea have compounded the situation in Moscow.
What does this mean for the war going on?
Even as Ukraine continues to progress, Moscow’s military is trying to establish a new defense line. However, the above mentioned manpower and training challenges of Russia raise major questions. The southern offensive, which is targeted around the city of Kherson, will likely continue for some time as Ukraine is unlikely to see quick gains.
Russia’s loss has also raised the stakes of the conflict. If President Putin thinks there is a serious possibility of a military defeat, experts fear the risk of escalation. Some point to the possibility of partial mobilization of troops in Russia. Others raise the prospect of nuclear threats being carried out by Moscow, although this is unlikely.
catch all business News, market news, today’s fresh news events and breaking news Updates on Live Mint. download mint news app To get daily market updates.