IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 2023 would be another “tough year” for the global economy, and inflation remained stable, but she did not expect another year of sustained declines like last year, barring unexpected growth. .
“Growth continues to slow in 2023,” he told reporters at the IMF’s headquarters in Washington. “The more positive part of the picture lies in the resilience of labor markets. As long as people are employed, even if prices are high, people spend … and that has helped performance.”
He said that the IMF does not expect any major decline. “That’s good news.”
Georgieva said the IMF expects the slowdown in global growth to “bottom out” and turn around “in late ’23 and ’24.”
Georgieva said there was much hope that China – which previously contributed about 35% to 40% of global growth but had “disappointing” results last year – would once again contribute to global growth, possibly in 2023. from the middle of But it depends on Beijing not to change its stance and stick to its plan to reverse its zero-COVID policies, he said.
She said the United States – the world’s largest economy – was likely to see a soft landing, and would suffer only a mild recession if it entered a technical recession.
But Georgieva said major uncertainties remain, including the threat of a significant climate event, a major cyberattack or an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine, for example through the use of nuclear weapons.
“We are in a more shocking world now and we have to keep an open mind that there could be risky twists and turns that we are not even thinking about,” he said. “That’s the whole point of previous years. The unthinkable has happened twice.
She cited concerns about growing social unrest in Brazil, Peru and other countries, and the impact of tightening financial conditions remains unclear.
But inflation remains “stubborn” and central banks must continue to press for price stability, he said.
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Chris Reese and Josie Cao)