Important points of China from the Russo-Ukraine war

Like India, and on expected lines, China also condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine on a US-sponsored United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution. However, China’s reasons for abstaining from voting at the UNSC, as well as its benefits and expectations from the invasion, are unique to its own position. Even in 2014, when the last vote against the Russian invasion of Crimea came to the vote at the UNSC, China decided to abstain, as did the legitimacy of the Crimean referendum. However, this time there are far bigger consequences as full-scale aggression and Ukrainian resistance lead to more uncertain outcomes. Therefore, it is necessary to look at China’s current strategic calculations.

status question

The first concerns China’s status as a responsible power. This is important for China because this year the Communist Party of China is going to organize the 20th National Party Congress. External stability, an enabling external environment and a positive perception and recognition of China’s role in the world will help the party at home as well.

It is playing on two levels. An important question that is being asked is whether China was aware of Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine and did enough to discourage it. Several observers have noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of his intentions when he visited Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics. Mr. Xi may have suggested that Mr. Putin wait for the conclusion of the Winter Olympics before recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk and launching an outright offensive after sending “defensive forces” there. Chinese officials have called such talks baseless. If Mr. Putin had informed Mr. Xi of impending actions, China would have expected Russian action to be confined to the Donbass region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk.

Furthermore, by trying to engage in the peace process, China would also like to avoid new criticisms of being a selfish power. Over the past few days, the US media has been trying to argue that the US should pay China for its silence on the war. China, for its part, has refused to call the Russian action an invasion. Recently, an op-ed published in the new York Times The U.S. had alleged that US intelligence had sought China’s help to deter Putin against aggression, but China had underestimated Russia’s intentions and buried those concerns under the carpet.

strategic outcome

While China may be surprised by the way the invasion progressed, the war is not an entirely negative outcome for China. As a result of this invasion, the West will likely turn its attention away from China. Thus, China will no longer be the main villain in the eyes of the liberal world, which it has been since unilaterally building islands in the South China Sea, and ever since reports of human rights violations increased in Xinjiang. China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ can also be seen to be lacking as it gives it the opportunity to mediate and participate in the settlement process.

Second, Russia is imposing costs on the West by increasing its military budget, which is also a good thing for China. This will divert Europe’s attention to its neighborhood and away from the Indo-Pacific and possibly delay its engagement with the Quad.

Beijing also sees a pattern in Ukraine’s engagement with Europe and fears a repeat of it in Central Asia, where Russian and Chinese interests continue to ward off democratic interference. For all the rhetoric of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s mandate to fight “terrorism, extremism and divisiveness”, the major common concern for China and Russia is externally provoked regime change, which forces democratization in Central Asia and deregulates the region. make it unstable. This is why China continues to appeal to Russia to resolve its issues with Ukraine, but has been tough on the US, calling subsequent sanctions on Russia and military promises to Ukraine as fuel to the fire. ,

Military and strategically, China has much to learn from this conflict. For one, the shock and astonishment and escalation metrics used by Russia may well be a blueprint if China considers a military solution in Taiwan or in situations where it sees its core interests violated. Used to be. China will also study Russian currency and signals, such as putting nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, and the response of the US, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, individual European countries and the UNSC. This is not to say that China would prefer a military solution to reunite Taiwan, but every crisis is an opportunity to learn.

Avinash Godbole Associate Professor and Assistant Dean, Jindal School of Liberal Arts and Humanities, Jindal Global University