Important test of ruling BJP before 2024 general elections

The BJP easily won UP, 256 of the 403 assembly seats and a 41.3% vote share (as of 10.35 pm), nearly 5 per cent more than its vote share in 2017 on the party’s so-called double-engine platform (same as the Centre) and party in the state, helping the cause of development). What is clear, however, is that the engines that power its victory—Hindutva, and skillfully run welfare schemes—are responsible for its electoral success in the state’s most recent election, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

“Adhesion to the style and essence of politics that the BJP embodies, strong politics, a broad appeal based on a combination of religious, communal and populist appeals. This model helped the BJP in its electoral performance despite the deep economic crisis. One can expect other chief ministers to follow suit. The BJP can only be challenged by parties that propose counter-narratives that appeal to broad sections of the electorate,” said Gilles Verniers, assistant professor at Ashoka University and senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research.

UP’s victory is a boost for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was the party’s campaigner-in-chief, and also for incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the state’s first CM in 30 years to return to power after completing a full term. Become. in office. The Samajwadi Party (SP), its main rival in a bipolar contest, improved its 2017 performance, winning 110 seats to 47, and reaching the highest ever vote share in the state (32%), but the fact It is that it came second best, and little, perhaps, is an indication of the limits of collegiate politics in a redefined electoral landscape.

The party’s success in winning UP and retaining all four of those states (UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur) is the best possible outcome for the BJP this round of elections – something even party insiders have not been able to predict. The scale of victory, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Clearly, the party is able to manage an anti-incumbency wave better than expected (this is possible in Uttarakhand and Goa), or no anti-incumbency wave (Uttar Pradesh and Manipur).

In Manipur, where it was in power in partnership with the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front, but contested separately, the BJP actually improved its position, with 21 seats out of 60 in the assembly. Won 32 seats. Outgoing held. Now she will form the government with NPP, which won 7 seats and NPF won 5 seats.

The only state where the BJP did not win was neither in power nor running in Punjab. The state witnessed a wave in favor of the Aam Aadmi Party, which won 92 of the 117 assembly seats with a vote share of 42%. The victory makes the Arvind Kejriwal-led party the only party to be in power in more than one region apart from the BJP and the Congress and also gives it a full-fledged state to govern (with the control of the police force).

Kejriwal termed his party’s massive victory in Punjab a “big revolution”. “Big people in politics have been ousted today. Sukhbir Singh Badal lost. Captain Amarinder Singh lost, (Chief Minister Charanjit Singh) Channi lost, Parkash Singh Badal lost, Navjot Singh Sidhu lost, and (Bikram Singh) Majithia also lost. Bhagat Singh once said that if we do not change the system after the British leave, nothing will happen. Sadly, in the last 75 years, these parties and leaders had the same British system. They were looting the country… AAP has changed this system in the last seven years and has introduced politics of honesty. Dreams of BR Ambedkar and Bhagat Singh have started coming true.

AAP’s victory, in the months to come, will be the result of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and K. Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which is already working on forming a conglomerate of parties. Throws out Congress.

The Congress’ performance in the elections did not help dispel the notion, especially among other political parties that are part of the larger national opposition, that it is becoming increasingly irrelevant.

The party won just two seats in Uttar Pradesh, where it was expected to perform poorly, and lost badly in Punjab (where it won 18 out of 117) and Uttarakhand (19 out of 70). Not long ago, the party hoped to win both in Punjab and Uttarakhand, but its attempt to tackle the anti-incumbency wave at first failed, even though it showed its inability to take advantage of the anti-incumbency wave. Uttarakhand and Goa government (both BJP) got the benefit of this.

Last time, the Congress’s inability to manage the post-poll scenario made it lose the opportunity to form governments in Goa and Manipur (it was the single largest party of the two). The party claimed to be ready this time in both states (and also in Uttarakhand), but the BJP finished with a clear majority in Uttarakhand and Manipur (along with its allies), and also won 20 out of 40 seats in Goa, This shows, once again, its ability to better manage the anti-incumbency wave. The party said that it would form the government in the state with the support of independent candidates. Before this round of assembly elections, many analysts said that it was a virtual semi-final for the 2024 national elections (indeed, any round of state elections that includes elections in UP, India’s most populous and political must be a critically important state).

If that were the case, the BJP would go on to become a strong contender in 2024.