In between: on India’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Forty Days at War in UkraineIndia’s role appears to be more relevant than that of other countries, which is evident from the influx of dignitaries from abroad over the past two weeks. Most were from countries that are part of the US and EU-led sanctions regime against Russia. His message was three-dimensional: asking India will change its vote in the United Nationswhere it has avoided all Proposals criticizing Russia’s invasion, to request that India not “accelerate” its purchases of Russian oil being offered at a discount; and to discourage India from using the rupee-ruble national currency-based payment mechanism that could remove “backfilling restrictions”. The messages became sharper and more public as it became clear that New Delhi would also host Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and officials in the West were expected to turn India’s position in their favor. However, his red carpet welcome, including a cordial meeting with the Prime Minister, makes it clear that New Delhi is not amenable to pressure. The External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar and the Finance Minister also reinforced the Indian “national interest” position, noting that European countries have not yet reduced their oil intake from Russia. It is likely that when Mr. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh travel to Washington for “2+2” meetings, the US will make another attempt to deflect the government from its chosen path, where there is a potential for CAATSA sanctions against India for purchases. Discount can be given. The Russian S-400 systems will also be discussed. The US is also keen to squeeze Russia on the multilateral fora with proposals to drop it from the G20 summit this year and suspend it from the Human Rights Council.

While the government cannot be blamed for refusing to succumb to external pressure, given the situation on the ground in Ukraine, it should consider the importance of remaining flexible in its stand at the United Nations and in bilateral dialogue. Reports of gross human rights violations alleged by the Russian military could change the color of the war, and India’s call for an independent investigation into the allegations is a significant intervention. In addition, the US and the EU are likely to tighten economic sanctions, as the current sanctions have not forced Russia to reconsider its course. Since Russia is unlikely to give up the territories of eastern Ukraine, and its western rivals are unlikely to abandon their retaliatory measures, New Delhi should realize that it will remain of value to both sides, while it is is not committed to. This will require a keen eye on rapid developments in the theater of war, what partners on both sides are planning next, and the ability to keep their minds open about India’s responsibilities as a global democracy and what it really is. In non-coalition power, lies.