Form of words:
Kolkata: about 40 percent NS voters in Bhabnipur The assembly constituency, from where West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will contest a crucial by-election on September 30, is made up of Gujaratis, Marwaris, Sikhs and Biharis. About 20 percent are Muslims, while the remaining 40 percent are Bengalis.
Demography has given the Kolkata district constituency the tag of ‘Mini India’, and has given rise to the perception that with such a high number of Gujarati and Marwari voters, the seat is more inclined towards the BJP.
History, however, shows otherwise.
In the past decade, Mamata’s Trinamool Congress has lost just one election here – the 2019 parliamentary election, when the BJP took the lead in the assembly constituency. Bhabnipur is a part of Kolkata Dakshin or South Kolkata Parliamentary Constituency.
Bhawanipur has had six elections in the last 10 years, including two general elections in 2014 and 2019, three assembly elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021, and a by-election in 2011.
Barring the 2019 blip, Trinamool has always had an edge here.
In the 2021 election, Shobhandeb Chattopadhyay, State Agriculture Minister, won from Bhawanipur by a margin of 29,000 votes.
“In areas with high Gujarati and Marwari population, we did well. In fact, in only two wards – KMC ward 70 and 74 – we are behind by around 3,500 and 450 votes. In the other six wards, we led by a huge margin. Chattopadhyay told ThePrint.
“In the 2019 general elections, the BJP led in six out of eight assembly constituencies (South Kolkata constituency), but in this election, they lagged behind in six out of eight (wards),” he said. “I see it as a good recovery of votes.”
He further said that even the Gujarati and Marwari voters of Bengal are now crazy about the Chief Minister.
“It is a state election. Non-Bengali voters also know and see what work Mamata has done. There are different types of voter sentiments in general elections. But, there is no division between Gujarati or Bengali in the assembly elections. Chattopadhyay said.
Everyone will vote for Mamta. We are trying to get maximum possible margin for CM right now.
Chattopadhyay had resigned from the post of Bhabnipur The MLAs will vacate the seat for the chief minister in June.
However, BJP leaders claim that the constituency may “shock” Mamata Banerjee.
“The Chief Minister is addressing meetings of workers, visiting Temple And Mosque chanting daily Chandi Path And bringing in a battery of senior leaders, including ministers and MPs, to oversee the wards. Does it look normal? Asked BJP MP Arjun Singh appointed as party observer on the seat.
Has anyone ever seen a politician who lost an election become the Chief Minister of the country? There are cases in which party chiefs did not contest elections and became chief ministers, only to fight and win later,” he said.
“But does anyone remember in which the losing candidate became the CM? Has anyone ever seen a Chief Minister putting all his might in a by-election like this? It means he is still insecure, and Bhabnipur could shock him.”
Read also: West Bengal Advocate General Kishor Dutta resigns, fourth consecutive top law officer resigns
demographic factor
Bhawanipur seat is made up of eight wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. These include ward numbers 63, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 77 and 82.
A senior Trinamool leader, who worked on the poll data, said wards 70 and 72 have mostly Gujarati and Marwari populations, where the number of Sikhs does not exceed 2,000.
In addition, Bhabnipur has 20 per cent Muslim voters, who are predominantly Hindi or Urdu speakers. According to the leader, Muslim voters are mostly concentrated in three wards – 77, 82 and 63.
Election Commission figures show that Mamata Banerjee won the 2016 assembly election here by around 25,000 votes. He defeated Deepa Das Munshi of CPM-Congress alliance.
Shobhandeb defeated BJP Rudranil Ghosh by nearly 29,000 votes. In fact, he managed more votes – 73,000 – than the 65,000 votes the chief minister got in the 2016 elections.
“In a by-election, the ruling party always gets an edge. People generally vote for the party in power,” said Saugata Roy, Trinamool MP and member of Banerjee’s core committee.
Commenting on Mamata Banerjee’s campaign in the region, he said, “For Banerjee, every election is a fight. She takes this as an opportunity to inspire the cadre, innovate the organization and build more relationships with the people. ”
However, the BJP feels that everything may not be easy for the ruling party.
“Didi ran away from Bhabnipur during the 2021 elections considering it a tough seat. In fact, in 2011, even when the CPM’s defeat was imminent, they did not take any chances with this seat,” said senior leader and BJP’s election committee member Shishir Bajoria.
“Why is the chief minister so proactive, if he has nothing to lose here? We are putting all the resources and there can be no more suitable candidate than Priyanka.Tibrewal) for this seat.”
(Edited by Arun Prashant)
Read also: Who is Priyanka Tibrewal, BJP’s lawyer will clash with Mamta Banerjee in Bhawanipur
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