Form of words:
New Delhi: India’s R value – an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading – has once again risen above 1 in the past week, with a current value of 1.17. Last week, India’s R fell to 0.83, but the rapid rise in cases in Maharashtra and Kerala raised the country’s overall R value.
The last time India had an R value was around 19 March, when it was 1.19. Then came the disastrous second wave.
The R or effective reproduction number is an estimate of the average number of people who are likely to get an infection from a patient. R must be below 1 for the epidemic to end.
“The situation is not looking good at all,” Sitabhara Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, told ThePrint.
“India’s R is close to 1.2. Not only is it higher than 1, it is much higher than the last time there was a fear of the third wave. At that time it was 1.03, only a little over 1, ”he said.
Around August 2, the overall R value had risen to 1.03, but fell below 1 in the following week.
R value for states
In Kerala, where R was reportedly 0.87 last week, the value rose to 1.33 this week. Similarly, for Maharashtra, which had R 0.87 last week, the price rose to 1.06.
While Maharashtra and Kerala have the highest number of active cases in India and are likely to be the biggest contributors to the rise in R this week, Sinha pointed out that two other states also saw a spike this week.
Mizoram now has the highest R – 1.36 – among the states that currently have the highest number of active cases in India. Mizoram’s R was 0.67 last week.
Similarly, the R of Jammu and Kashmir increased from 0.85 last week to 1.25 this week.
Andhra Pradesh’s R is 1.09 this week, compared to 0.87 last week.
In all other states the R is below 1 this week.
However, Manipur is showing an increasing R trend. The R in the state rose to 0.93 this week from 0.8 last week.
In Himachal Pradesh, R increased from 0.74 last week to 0.78 this week, while in Odisha the R increased to 0.88 this week, from 0.82 last week.
Meanwhile, Assam’s R declined to 0.87 this week from 0.95 last week.
Read also: Lancet study states that half of hospitalized Kovid patients continue to have symptoms after a year
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