TeaThe Russia-Ukraine war that started on 24 February 2022 has affected the whole world in one way or the other. Domains affected include security – particularly for countries dependent on Russian defense equipment – energy supplies, grain supplies and economic increases in costs. Furthermore, a nuclear escalation is still a possibility, no matter how outlandish.
The main Russian demands were Ukraine not joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a pledge by NATO to stop its eastward expansion. This was a reasonable expectation given Russia’s security concerns. These demands were not met as Ukraine was made to play into the hands of the US and other NATO countries in order to outwit Russia, a situation that continues to this day. Ukraine has suffered heavy losses and the conflict shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Although Russia also suffered significant losses, Russian losses are not Ukrainians’ gains.
Therefore, it is vital that this conflict is resolved not only for the benefit of Russia and Ukraine, but for the greater good of the entire world.
China has ushered in a ‘no boundary’ friendship with Russia after the Beijing Olympics 2022. This is beside the point that China has been openly supporting Russia less because of concerns for Russia’s well-being and more because of its animosity with the US. China presented a 12-point proposal on 24 February 2023 to resolve the Russia-Ukraine dispute. The proposal was followed by President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia from March 20-22. While the proposal received a positive response from the Russian side, it did not ring positive bells on the Ukrainian side.
China’s 12-point proposal includes respecting the sovereignty of all countries, abandoning the Cold War mentality, ending hostilities, resuming peace talks, resolving humanitarian crises, protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs) to protect nuclear power plants, strategically reduce risks, facilitating grain exports, preventing unilateral sanctions, stabilizing industrial supply and chains, and promoting post-conflict reconstruction. The resolution was primarily a broad framework on the basis of which dialogue was to be initiated to find a common ground for conflict resolution.
Any negotiated conflict resolution is only successful when both sides of the conflict find an honorable exit, which is a tough call between Russia and Ukraine for the following reasons:
- Crimea, formerly part of Ukraine, was annexed by Russia in 2014.
- Four Ukrainian oblasts – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – have been annexed by Russia since 30 September 2022. These account for close to 15 percent of Ukrainian territory – about 20 percent if you include Crimea.
- Cities and towns in Ukraine were devastated, in addition to the loss of troops and military equipment. Russia also suffered significant losses in troops and equipment but escaped any infrastructure damage.
- Support from the US and NATO countries is growing and Ukraine has achieved some success through its counteroffensive against Russian advances and progress is expected to continue in the coming days. It has become more defiant to negotiate.
conflict resolution
The standoff with China can be resolved based on the Indian approach to conflict resolution, even if it is yet to be successful in the Indian context. The Indian approach is simple and logical in that it is not seeking anything new from China, but is ready to maintain peace and tranquility along the borders if China reverts to the pre-conflict status quo that existed in April 2020. It should be noted that India and China have a complex border issue. China occupies Aksai Chin and the LAC is symbolic – neither delineated nor demarcated due to different perceptions at many places. Relations still flourished until China changed the status quo in April 2020. If China goes back to April 2020 places then the relations will be back to normal.
The Indian argument with China may be excluded to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proposal may include an immediate ceasefire of hostilities and political dialogue on the following lines:
- Both Russia and Ukraine reverted to status quo ante before Russia launched special military operations.
- Leave the issue of Crimea out of the current discussion, although it may be part of the negotiation process later.
- Due to the Minsk Agreements in 2014 and subsequently in 2015, two regions of Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk – were reasonably free and therefore these four Ukrainian enclaves can be given independence outside of Russian and Ukrainian control. They may also be given considerable autonomy and perhaps retained within the Ukrainian federal structure, depending on what is acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Threadbare discussions may yield a detailed solution.
- Russia takes responsibility for rebuilding Ukraine to pre-conflict levels. International organizations and other countries may also chip in.
- All sanctions on Russia should be withdrawn.
- Ukraine does not join NATO and the eastward expansion of NATO is prevented.
It is hoped that these four blocs being granted liberal autonomy but Ukraine not joining NATO as well as staying within Ukraine would provide an honorable exit for both Ukraine as well as Russia. Fine tuning can be done through mutual discussion. There is a golden opportunity for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Russia and Ukraine with such a proposal, which may involve going back to the status quo ante before January 1, 2022, by both sides. It will also give more legitimacy to our stand towards China by putting pressure on Beijing to resolve the LAC issue.
Major General Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd) is a Kargil war veteran and defense analyst. He tweeted @chanakyaoracle. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)