In a year marked by a devastating second wave COVID-19The all-cause mortality rate in Kerala is likely to touch a record high, with the highest number of January-June deaths recorded in recent years in 2021.
In the first six months of the year, Kerala recorded 1,55,520 deaths – a 35 per cent jump from the same period (1,15,081 deaths) in 2020, a year of the Covid-imposed lockdown, and a 21 per cent jump from the pre-2019- pandemic toll (1,28,667 deaths) in the first six months of the year.
The all-cause mortality rate is the total number of deaths including official COVID deaths.
Data from the state’s chief registrar of births and deaths show that the months of May and June this year saw a sharp increase in recorded deaths as compared to the same period in previous years.
June 2021 was the worst in terms of mortality in recent years, with the state recording 32,501 deaths – a 57 per cent jump as compared to 20,640 deaths in June 2020 and 20,642 deaths recorded in June 2019.
In May this year, the state recorded 28,684 deaths – a jump of 33.4 per cent in May 2020 (21,488 deaths) and a jump of 24.8 per cent as compared to 22,984 deaths recorded in May 2019.
In these two months, Kerala also recorded the highest number of daily Covid-19 deaths, around 150-200 deaths in a day. From May 1 to July 1, the state recorded 7,927 deaths – not including the numbers added after the health department’s Covid-19 death reconciliation exercise, after hearing appeals from those whose names were not included in the original list of victims Were. was modified.
an inquiry before Indian Express The team of journalists suggested an undercount in official COVID deaths across the country. But exactly how much can be estimated and that too at least in a year the way India counts its dead.
As part of the investigation, the newspaper had contacted several state governments, eight of which provided records of deaths recorded in April and May this year as per the civil registration system, including Kerala. Data from Kerala showed that out of all deaths recorded from April 1 to May 30, 2021, after removing official Covid deaths, the number was 1.23 times higher than the figures for the same period in 2019.
Since the start of the pandemic, till December 8, Kerala has reported 41,831 Covid deaths, of which 12,161 have been added through appeals.
The impact of the lockdown on deaths was evident in Kerala in the months of March and April of 2020, when the state reported 16,176 and 13,338 deaths respectively. However, in the same month of this year, this figure increased to 24,632 and 21,231 respectively.
The data showed that the all-cause mortality in Kerala in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, fell to 2,53,638 from 2,70,567 in 2019. However, the first nine months of this year, by 30 September, have passed. The registered death toll stands at 2,12,712.
Sources said the final figures for August and September are likely to be higher in view of the late registration of deaths. According to the statistics department, only 65 per cent of the deaths in Kerala are recorded within the mandatory 21-day period.
The data holds another indicator that indicates 2021 is set for a record high in all-cause deaths. In recent years in Kerala, the percentage distribution of deaths by month of occurrence showed that the months of July to December have recorded more deaths than the first six months. This trend was visible in 2020 as well, a year when the state reported a decline in all-cause mortality compared to 2019. With three months’ worth of figures still to be recorded in 2021, experts predict the total number will increase. Once.
Figures for all-cause deaths since 2009 show that the annual figure has been consistently above 2.50 lakh since 2015, a trend that experts attribute to the state’s rapidly growing population.
Kerala’s death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 population), which was 6.74 in 2009, rose to 7.77 in 2019.
Continually updating the toll with Kerala’s Covid-19 death reconciliation exercise, the state health department was saying that any pandemic review should be done on the basis of total deaths and not just looking at Covid-19 deaths. . known for