IPCC makes case for halving global emissions by 2030

Emissions between 2010 and 2019 were 12% and 54% higher than in 2010 and 1990, respectively, despite repeated warnings by the IPCC that the time to limit dangerous global warming is running out. However, the growth rate of GHG emissions has slowed over the past decade, the report said.

The IPCC has warned that GHG emissions are projected to increase beyond 2025, leading to an average global warming of 3.2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, well beyond the policies implemented so far.

For India, some of the findings are particularly important. These include a shrinking carbon budget to keep global warming below 1.5 °C, a lack of climate finance for the energy transition, and the IPCC’s emphasis on moving away from fossil fuel-powered infrastructure. This means that India has a very small share of the global carbon budget to grow.

Global financial flows from developed countries are three to six times below the levels needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, the IPCC maintains that there is enough global capital and liquidity to close the investment gap. Access to global capital will depend on clear signals from governments on efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy, the report said.

If global CO2 emissions continue at current rates, the remaining carbon budget to keep global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be exhausted before 2030.

“The next few years will be crucial for scaling up mitigation action. This is one of the major findings of the report. The focus should now be on limiting the damage and doing as much as possible in the shortest possible time,” said Navroz Dubash, Center for Policy Research, a think tank, and lead author of the IPCC report coordinating.

The report said GHG emissions in 2030, based on the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) announced prior to COP 26 last year, are unlikely to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

“The jury has reached a verdict, and it is damaging. This report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a slew of broken climate promises. It is a file of shame, listing empty pledges that give us an incredible world We are on the fast track to a climate disaster: Major cities underwater. Unprecedented heat. Terrible storms. Widespread water crisis. The extinction of a million species of plants and animals. Fiction or exaggeration. No,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said during the report’s launch. “This is what science tells us that our current energy policies will result in. We are on a path to more than double global warming. The 1.5-degree limit was agreed in Paris,” he said.

The report isn’t all doom and gloom. Since 2010, the cost of solar and wind power and batteries has decreased steadily by up to 85%. There has also been a rapid increase in the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The IPCC highlights that a growing array of policies and laws have increased energy efficiency, reduced the rate of deforestation and increased the deployment of renewable energy. “We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a vibrant future. We have the tools and information we need to limit warming,” said IPCC President Hosung Lee.

Reducing GHG emissions requires major changes, including a substantial reduction in the use of fossil fuels, the IPCC stressed. It added, “Continuous installation of unconnected fossil fuel infrastructure will ‘lock-in’ GHG emissions.” Both the messages on the low cost of renewable energy and moving away from fossil fuels are important for India. India’s non-fossil energy potential will reach 500 GW by 2030, meeting 50% of the country’s energy needs by then, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the Glasgow climate summit on November 1. India will reduce its total estimated carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030, reduce the carbon footprint of its economy by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.