Islamabad’s problem. Taliban will no longer be peaceful – in Afghanistan or Pakistan

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TeaThat America is out of Kabul and the Taliban are inside. Afghanistan is waiting for a change of direction. The Taliban are aiming to create an interim setup for power and influence that will then form the next government in Afghanistan. Certainly but sadly, Pakistan is at the center of the difficult process of government formation in Afghanistan and its acceptance by the international community.

Sources say that at a private gathering of retired generals, journalists and diplomats, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said that he was in no hurry to recognize the Taliban-led regime as long as it was the international community. Not by or at least by a select few. State. The problem is that, so far, not all important states, including the Central Asian republics, feel confident to recognize the Taliban. He also spoke about his apprehension that Pakistan may be targeted by the US and sanctions may be imposed on them, for which he is prepared. The last part of the statement is wrong as Pakistan needs more funds than Taliban. Pakistan is more of a state than Afghanistan led by the Taliban. It will be a struggle for Islamabad to help Afghanistan get back on its feet, even if it thinks the Taliban is a transformed entity and not as in the 1990s.

Read also: No, US state-building in Afghanistan did not fail. it just picked the wrong enemy

Pakistan’s plan

Despite Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir Claim That the people in Pakistan are not celebrating the victory of the Taliban, there is a lot of enthusiasm at various levels for various reasons. Broadly speaking, next door is the acceptance of the power shift. There is either a fatigue with the Afghan war, silencing men on the street, especially in tribal areas, or a tacit acceptance of change driven by the deeply skeptical of the West.

The Pakistani military establishment floats in the middle – trying to balance its enthusiasm to get rid of the Ashraf Ghani government, and how to involve the world in accepting the new political formula and making it work for Pakistan’s benefit , deep thought on this. Taliban victory, which seemed unlikely six months ago, reminds the Afghan envoy to Islamabad’s special envoy Mohamed Sadiq Vladimir Ilyich Lenin says: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where there are decades.” However, the focus issue in a few weeks to decades is that there is a lot to handle. Pakistan certainly has a lot to offer that differs from the regional and global response to Afghanistan and the management of domestic influence.

There is no point in hiding the fact that Islamabad expected and desired this change. According to Iranian-American author Wali Nasr, former army chief Ashfaqi Parvez Kiyani Warned Washington not to prolong his stay in Afghanistan. Since Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s military sector knew the US would leave and wanted to expedite departure. With this understanding, Rawalpindi invested mainly in the Taliban. Rawalpindi’s wish was to ensure a friendly establishment in its north-western neighbour, which is not exploited especially by India against Pakistan’s interests. Former Army Chief General Mirza Aslam Baig further explains the infamous concept of ‘strategic depth’ in his latest book power compulsions This meant creating a set of states that would have a joint cultural and strategic ethos – meaning Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.

But getting the Taliban back in Kabul is not as easy as it seems.

Read also: Pakistan vs Qatar – It could be a dirty contest as to who will advise the Taliban now

all is not well for pakistan

Policymakers in Islamabad have three broad issues to ponder.

First, how to develop international legitimacy for the new Afghan government. Rawalpindi wants the world to believe that trade with the Taliban can be done. It is meant to create a new image that is different from the 1990s. The Taliban have been signaling to women that they will have the freedom to work and receive education provided they adhere to basic Shari’a norms. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid recently announced That the media is free to act and that they will remove their fighters from the media offices. The statement is reminiscent of similar assurances about media freedom by Pakistan’s generals, realizing an attempt to make the Taliban-led regime look increasingly like Pakistan (or even India): Hybrid-authoritarian and hybrid-god. Taliban despite propagandaBehaviour, so far, is not generating trust.

Second, the Taliban cannot return to their Sharia rule of the 1990s, at least not throughout Afghanistan, to gain the legitimacy necessary to acquire resources from abroad. The Taliban may be old, but for a practical state structure it is newer than the ordinary Afghan. The political system after 9/11, although artificial, was run through international financial aid. Over the years, people have got used to it and want the basic needs to be met. It is no longer just about the Taliban using drug money to survive, but about feeding the people for which international cooperation is essential. Kabul will have to treat itself and engage with global players in order to release $9 billion to Washington.

Read also: China takes a risky Taliban gamble as it keeps an eye on Afghanistan’s $1 trillion minerals

Pakistan has no money to feed Afghanistan or even refugees if they come to the door again. This means that the Taliban must treat themselves during the US pull-out process. It is essential that nothing untoward happens to the American public if there are not Afghans left behind by American and NATO forces. The speed at which General Bajwa has convinced British Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) General Nick Carter to be a Taliban.country boys‘ Only wanting to implement Sharia, which is confused with ‘Pushtunwali’, shows that the protection of women and minorities may not be a long-term strategic story. Human tragedies are the taste of the week but can be overlooked in the long run. The actual agreement on human rights was first made when the US negotiators Agreed To release 5,000 Taliban prisoners. The possibility of the world doing business with the Taliban remains open as long as there is no future terrorist act that is reminiscent of 9/11.

This also applies to China – it is cautious about investing in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s goal is to convince the world that Afghanistan is a better place now than under the Taliban. This is a risky route as it puts more than what it can chew on a Pakistani plate. In case of an act of terror, Islamabad will be dragged over the coals including China if the incident occurs there.

Third, Pakistan wants to encourage the Taliban to work out a broad-based formula involving various domestic stakeholders such as the Northern Alliance and other warlords as part of the new government. It may not be easy to persuade the Taliban, who are confident of their victory, to make major adjustments. This is where the real problem for Pakistan begins: there is too much ambiguity about what Pakistan can and cannot provide. An even more serious problem is how much control Islamabad can control to ensure its security from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or other terrorist groups ideologically affiliated with the Taliban. The Afghan Taliban will not sever ties with the TTP, nor will they stop inspiring the religious authority in Pakistan, which will now look even more eagerly at the prospect of Pakistan turning into a theocracy. Jamaat-e-Islami chief Sirajul Haque recently announced his support Asked for Taliban and for Sharia based system in Pakistan. Jaish-e-Mohammed had expressed enthusiasm in one of its recent publications about the Taliban and jihad in Kashmir.

The fact is that, despite the ambition to sweeten the tone of religion in Afghanistan, Pakistan itself risks becoming like its northwestern neighbor – more religious and more authoritarian. None of this bode well for China, which is one of the few authoritarian but secular-nationalist states in the neighborhood.

Ayesha Siddiqa is a research associate and author at SOAS, London Military Inc. Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Thoughts are personal.

(Edited by Neera Mazumdar)

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