RBI growth forecast: Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Michael Patra on Saturday said India can “turn the clock” and achieve 11 per cent growth in the next decade if it reaps the demographic dividend and boosts manufacturing and exports. Is.
Delivering a speech to celebrate ‘Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav’ organized by Reserve Bank of India, Bhubaneshwar, Patra said that India has opportunities in terms of demographic advantage, ability to boost manufacturing, increase in export value as well as internalisation. has a window. ,
Patra said that if India seizes its opportunities and overcomes challenges, it is widely believed that India will “turn the times”. It is possible to imagine that “India is moving ahead with a growth rate of 11 per cent in the next decade”.
If this is achieved, India will become the world’s second largest economy not by 2048 but by 2031, he said. With a population of 1.38 billion, India is the youngest country in the world at 28.4 years old. He said that by 2023 India will be the most populous country in the world with 1.43 billion.
Comparing the ratio of working age population (WAP), he said that India is in an advantageous position as compared to countries like China, Brazil, USA and Japan as the working age population of these countries has started declining. already. While India’s WAP ratio will increase by 2045, even exceed that of China by 2030.
“Making the most of this demographic dividend is an opportunity as well as a challenge for India,” Patra said.
Talking about India’s manufacturing capacity, he said that it is another engine to accelerate India’s economic growth.
Stating that strong growth of manufacturing is essential to boost exports, he said, it is imperative to reverse the conventional wisdom and align with other major manufacturers in the world.
To achieve this, he said, three things are necessary. Firstly the manufacturing sector must adapt to the Fourth Industrial Revolution through automation; data exchange; cyber-physical systems; Internet of Things; cloud computing; cognitive computing; Smart Factory; and advanced robotics.
Second, India should develop a skilled labor force by increasing investment in human capital and third, efforts should be directed towards promoting international competitiveness.
“For India to become a global manufacturing hub, the share of manufacturing must increase to at least 25 per cent of GDP.”
In terms of exports, Patra said this is an opportunity to expand markets and production capacities beyond national borders.
With currently exports of USD 800 billion of goods and services, which is about 2.7 per cent of the total exports of the world, he said that if India can achieve the target of USD 1 trillion set by the government by 2030, it will be India. can increase the share to 5. Percentage in world exports.
He said that this will make India a superpower of exports. Several initiatives are being taken to realize this and increasing India’s share in world exports to at least 5 per cent is within reach.
On “internationalisation”, he said that Indians are among the most internationalized people in the world.
The Indian diaspora is the largest in the world and India is the top recipient of remittances. The Indian rupee is traded three times more offshore than onshore. Yet we still talk of internationalization as if it is the last frontier.”
“If the INR (Indian Rupee) turnover becomes equal to the share of non-US non-Euro currencies in global foreign exchange turnover (4 percent), then the INR will come in as an international currency, which represents India’s contribution to the global economy. reflects the situation,” Patra said.
However, he said that there are challenges in terms of compensating the loss of production and livelihood due to the pandemic and it will take many years to recover from this loss.
Among others, the country faces challenges such as lack of infrastructure in terms of low per capital investment in infrastructure construction as well as lack of high-quality labor force.
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