Kerala is once again in the grip of floods and its north-eastern cousin along with the retreat of the southwest monsoon for the third time since 2019. Heavy rains have led to heavy landslides, this time in the hilly areas of central Kerala districts of Kottayam, Idukki and Pathanamthitta. The state has received 117 per cent excess rainfall in October, causing floods in Ernakulam, Alappuzha and Thrissur districts (again in central Kerala). This is the fourth year in a row that rains have wreaked havoc in the state since the once-in-a-century major floods in 2018.
Recurrent floods and drastic changes in weather patterns have worried climate experts. “Kerala has witnessed rapid climate change over the past decade. A change is visible in the rainfall pattern during the monsoon as the Arabian Sea is regularly recording a temperature of 28 °C during the monsoon season (normally hovering below 27 °C). Changes in ocean temperatures are a clear indication of the effects of global warming. This demands a lot of vigilance for Kerala,” says Dr MG Manoj, a senior scientist at the Center for Advanced Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (QSAT).
Manoj, who has been studying climate change on India’s southern coast for many years, says Kerala’s geographical location and topography have made matters worse. Therefore, rising sea temperatures result in deep cloud formation and smaller cloud bursts due to the proximity to the hills of the Western Ghats. “The disaster-affected areas received 50-70 mm of rain in an hour, resulting in floods and landslides. This is a new phenomenon- the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet classified mini cloudbursts on its weather charts. During the monsoon season, many areas receive more than 20 mm of rain per hour for short periods. Given the unique topography of Kerala with 50-100 km width in many areas, hills and 44 rivers, this situation increases the intensity of the disasters. The incident has to be studied for proper alert alert,” says Manoj.
Kerala receives an average of 3,000 mm of rainfall annually in three parts- pre-monsoon (April-May), south-west monsoon (June-September) and northeast monsoon (October-December). Over the years, the rains have helped it become ‘God’s Own Country’ and have also produced cheap hydroelectric power.
But the climate calendar has changed since 2017, the first sign of which was Cyclone Ockhi, which killed 143 fishermen in the state off the southern coast that year. About 29 cyclonic storms have hit India since 2017 and 11 of them originated in the Arabian Sea. In fact, Kerala was saved this May when Cyclone Taukata barely missed its coast and headed for Gujarat. “Kerala would have been devastated if it had moved 50 km closer to our coast,” says a senior meteorologist.
A study by the State Disaster Management Authority has red flagged 5642.6 sq km of land (14.5 per cent of the total area) in the state saying they are prone to floods. The population of 27 taluks is highly vulnerable while the other 45 taluks are at moderate risk.
The climate calendar has changed since 2017, the first sign of which was Cyclone Ockhi, which hit the southern coast that year, killing 143 fishermen in the state.
“We have to learn to live with floods because the effects of global warming will be severe. This is a challenging phase for Kerala and there is no easy solution. “We have to manage floods with a scientific approach, while meticulously planning to strengthen our vulnerable river basins,” says James Wilson, a civil engineer-turned-hydrologist currently working with the Mullaperiyar Dam Controversy Cell.
According to him, it is no longer practical for Kerala to create a ‘flood storage cushion’. “The state-run 53 dams have a combined storage capacity of 5,806 million cubic meters (MCM). Kerala has no other option but to release water during heavy floods,” argues Wilson. This is a far cry from five years ago, when TV newsroom discussions were always about the fear of drought and power cuts in the summer months (January-May) and accusing governments of “wasting” dam water. used to go.
The effects of rapid climate change are made worse by riverbank encroachment, unrestricted mine mining, high population densities (859 persons per sq km) and fading wetlands. The state government disclosed 27,735 cases of Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) violations in an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court in October 2020. It listed 1,860 structures built without approval from local bodies, but prayed for exemption from punitive action.
Protectionists blame the political leadership for the current mess. “We are paying a high price for our greed and corruption, as it has turned Kerala into a disaster-prone region in recent years,” said retired professor and environmentalist E. Kunjikrishnan after a visit to Kootikal in Kottayam district. Said where there was a massive landslide. After the recent floods. “We have destroyed the Western Ghats with unrestricted stone quarry mining. There are about 6,500 stone quarries operating in the area, but only 750 have licenses to operate. Meanwhile, encroachment on river valleys obstructs the flow of water and during the rainy season ‘water bombs’ keep on bursting, resulting in landslides and flash floods.”
KP JB, a native of Mundakayam in Kottayam district, learned this the hard way after losing his home on the banks of the Manimalayar river. A bus driver who had used all his savings to build a nice house for his family lost everything in seconds when his house was swept away. “Thank God, we are alive. When it started raining heavily we went ahead and realized that the river was in spate. We have lost everything,” says the grief-stricken JB.
TKA Nair, a retired senior bureaucrat and former advisor to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, says Kerala should devise a foolproof strategy to deal with the challenges of climate change facing the state. “There are enough warnings. Whether we listen to them or not is another matter. Every project in Kerala, be it government or private, should be an ecological impact study to reduce the casualties in the future,” explains Nair.
But the state government is still hesitant to impose restrictions in flood-prone areas and relocate vulnerable families from disaster-prone areas. At present, relief work is going on for the October victims. State Revenue Minister K. Rajan says that the Left Front government is “conscious of the gravity of the situation and will initiate micro-planning in disaster prone areas. But now our first priority is to develop early warning system at the local level to prevent any disastrous effects.”
Any further delay in implementing the integrated plan for disaster prone areas may prove to be catastrophic for the state. Kerala is returning to normalcy after a long, grueling battle with COVID and what its people can do with a responsive administration that heeds warnings of these extreme climate events.
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