Key Q4 earnings, economic data, global trends to define markets this week

trading in Indian market Will be closed on 14th April on the occasion of Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti.

Ajit Mishra, VP – Technical Research, Religare Broking said, “Earnings season has started since the beginning of the week and two big IT companies like TCS and Infosys and banking heavyweights, HDFC bank, will announce their numbers. Besides, on the macroeconomic front, participants will be watching IIP and CPI inflation on April 12 and WPI inflation on April 14. Apart from domestic factors, global cues and trends in foreign inflows will also be taken into account.”

Moreover, going forward, Shrikant Chauhan, head of equity research (retail), Kotak Securities said, “D-Street will focus on macro trends. Global news flow and steps taken by various governments to tackle their economy Markets will settle. On the economy front. RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF rate unchanged at 6.25% and MSF rate unchanged at 6.75%. All six members vote in favor of pause.”

Meanwhile, given the rising horizon on domestic growth and a stable financial market, India is expected to outperform equities, said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.

“We can expect FII inflows to pick up further. However, high levels of inflation should meaningfully fall during the second half of the year, else the positivity will be lost,” said Nair. The minutes of the FOMC meeting are to be announced next week ” Which can have a powerful impact on the global market. Investors are looking for signs of a future Fed interest rate pause, which could have a positive effect on global markets, otherwise the opposite.”

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, believes that the Nifty may move further towards 17800 in the next few sessions while taking support at 17428.

According to Mishra, the rally in the last two weeks has definitely eased the pressure, but we need a decisive close of a short-term trend reversal in the Nifty above 17,700. Banking, financial and FMCG majors have played their part in the initial phase of recovery and now contribution from other key sectors like energy, IT and auto will be crucial to help Nifty reclaim 18100+ zone. In case of any profit taking, 17200-17400 zone will provide necessary support. In the meanwhile, we recommend continuation of “Buy on dips” approach with focus on risk management citing increase in volatility due to upcoming earnings season.

The Sensex gained at least 841.5 points or 1.4% last week, while the Nifty 50 also gained over 239 points or 1.4%.

The latest print of Sensex is 59,832.97 and Nifty 50 is 17,599.15. Last week the markets had only 3 trading sessions with holidays on 4th April and 7th April. Nair said it was an encouraging week for the Indian stock market, with solid gains compared to other EMs, which were muted.

He pointed out that the release of positive monthly auto sales data, higher-than-expected PMI manufacturing data, strong quarterly bank and NBFC numbers, and unexpected tax cut were the driving factors. Above all, the surprising pause in interest rates hike by RBI was the game changer.

RBI surprised the market by keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. However, it also maintained a “return of accommodation” stance to the policy as well.

The market has been on a winning spree for the last 5 trading sessions. From March 29 to April 6, the Sensex gained 2,014 points or 3.5% and the Nifty 50 gained 599.15 points or 3.5%.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given above are of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint. We advise investors to do due diligence with certified experts before making any investment decision.