With the final week of IPL 2022 coming to an end, there are now only 9 matches left to play in the league stage, but that too translates into 512 possible combinations of results.
TOI looks at all these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. Although Mi And Chennai Super Kings Can no longer qualify for the playoff stage, as on Sunday morning, 15 May, three of the top four places are still open. Until now GT is the only team to have qualified for the playoffs after Saturday’s win KKR Lives up to its chances of qualifying for the next level. Here’s what the possibilities look like:
, Despite having two more matches to play, MI are out of playoff spot count
, CSK is also in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
, KKR have doubled their chances of making the top four as its chances for the playoffs increased from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% versus Saturday’s win. SRH, Although they may finish third in the points table, they will share that spot with teams four to six. In a worst-case scenario, they would be eighth in the points table after the league stage.
,DCThe chances of a place in the top four slot have improved slightly to 50%, but at best they can expect a joint second place which they will share with teams of three to four.
,PBKS DC is doing the match step by step and their chances of a top-four finish have also increased to 50%. Like DC, PBKS can no longer top the table as their best chance is now joint second with three to four other contenders.
, SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four places have come down to 12.5% after losing to KKR on Saturday. Among all the teams, they now have the least chance of qualifying
,RCBThe odds of a spot in the top four slots have improved slightly to 81.3%. They can’t even top the points table anymore. The best they can be is second place – a position they’ll share with teams of three to four.
,RR There is a 93.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a joint first position they can share with two to three teams. In the worst case they can drop to fifth place
,lsgThe nerve-racking week is on. This is their first IPL season and they can be sure to reach the top three spots in terms of points. They can be joint first with three teams, joint second with four teams, and joint third with up to three teams.
, GT, even in their maiden IPL season, remains the only team to have an assured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for the top spot in which they are third on net run rate.
, In short, betting on GT, LSG, RR and RCB has relatively little chance of displacing RR or RCB in the race for a playoff spot along with PBKS and DC. KKR and SRH are still in the fray, but with less mathematical probabilities.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches left. We assumed that the probability of either side winning for a given match is even. Then we looked at how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots based on points. This gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, out of 512 possible outcome combinations, RR ranks first to fourth on points in 480 combinations. This translates to a 93.8% probability. We do not take into account net run rate or “no results” as it is impossible to predict in advance.
TOI looks at all these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. Although Mi And Chennai Super Kings Can no longer qualify for the playoff stage, as on Sunday morning, 15 May, three of the top four places are still open. Until now GT is the only team to have qualified for the playoffs after Saturday’s win KKR Lives up to its chances of qualifying for the next level. Here’s what the possibilities look like:
, Despite having two more matches to play, MI are out of playoff spot count
, CSK is also in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
, KKR have doubled their chances of making the top four as its chances for the playoffs increased from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% versus Saturday’s win. SRH, Although they may finish third in the points table, they will share that spot with teams four to six. In a worst-case scenario, they would be eighth in the points table after the league stage.
,DCThe chances of a place in the top four slot have improved slightly to 50%, but at best they can expect a joint second place which they will share with teams of three to four.
,PBKS DC is doing the match step by step and their chances of a top-four finish have also increased to 50%. Like DC, PBKS can no longer top the table as their best chance is now joint second with three to four other contenders.
, SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four places have come down to 12.5% after losing to KKR on Saturday. Among all the teams, they now have the least chance of qualifying
,RCBThe odds of a spot in the top four slots have improved slightly to 81.3%. They can’t even top the points table anymore. The best they can be is second place – a position they’ll share with teams of three to four.
,RR There is a 93.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a joint first position they can share with two to three teams. In the worst case they can drop to fifth place
,lsgThe nerve-racking week is on. This is their first IPL season and they can be sure to reach the top three spots in terms of points. They can be joint first with three teams, joint second with four teams, and joint third with up to three teams.
, GT, even in their maiden IPL season, remains the only team to have an assured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for the top spot in which they are third on net run rate.
, In short, betting on GT, LSG, RR and RCB has relatively little chance of displacing RR or RCB in the race for a playoff spot along with PBKS and DC. KKR and SRH are still in the fray, but with less mathematical probabilities.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches left. We assumed that the probability of either side winning for a given match is even. Then we looked at how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots based on points. This gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, out of 512 possible outcome combinations, RR ranks first to fourth on points in 480 combinations. This translates to a 93.8% probability. We do not take into account net run rate or “no results” as it is impossible to predict in advance.
Come back on Monday (May 16) morning for our updated predictions, which will take into account the results of Sunday’s matches.