BJP supporters celebrate the victory of Tripura Chief Minister and party’s candidate from Bordovali town Manik Saha in the state assembly elections in Agartala on March 2, 2023. Photo Credit: ANI
in pattern election results in north eastern states, which went to the polls, appears to be similar in important ways. Clearly all three states have supported the ruling coalitions with varying degrees of assertiveness. In TripuraIn 2010, the BJP-led coalition was returned to power with a reduced majority and a ten percent drop in vote share compared to its historic first victory five years earlier. The alliance of the Left and the Congress finished second with both a slight drop in seat share and a ten per cent drop in vote share as compared to 2018. The alliance and the Left-Congress alliance has been the new entrant in state politics, Tipra Motha, which polled around 20% of the votes and came third with 13 seats (Table 1).
The Lokniti-CSDS post in Tripura provides important insights into interpreting the poll results and voter mood. It is clear that individual candidates played a minor role in defining voter preference. For those who voted for the BJP and Left-led alliances, party appeared to be the most important factor, indicated by more than half of the respondents. One-quarter of those who voted for the two coalitions said that both the party and the candidate were important factors in determining whom to vote for.
Tipra Motha’s supporters took a different stand. While one-quarter of respondents who voted for this regional party said that both the party and the candidate were an important consideration, two in ten said it was the party, and one in ten said it was the candidate. . What set Tipra Motha’s supporters apart, however, was the fact that for two out of every ten respondents, the leadership of the party leader, Deb Barma, was a major factor, and for two out of every ten, caste/tribe was a factor. Important
It is important to record that two years ago, in 2021, Tipra Motha came to power in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections (see Table 2). Thus, while the BJP-led coalition was supported for a second term in office, the new player on the block is clearly Tipra Motha. The main goal of the party is the creation of a ‘Greater Tipperaland’ state. For a new candidate, securing nearly 20% of the vote in their first election is a significant achievement. As the caste-community-based article shows, this was made possible by the overwhelming support Tipra Motha received from the state’s tribal electorate and the demand for a greater Tipraland.
The voters of Tripura had already made up their mind about whom to vote for, even before the election was announced. Three out of five voters claimed that they had decided whom to vote for long before the campaign began. About one-third said they made the decision during the campaign or at the last minute. Voters seem to have taken stock of the political choices they want to make before the announcement of candidates and the cut and thrust of the campaign. It is also important to note that supporters of Tipra Motha were slightly more likely to say that they had decided on their choice before the campaign started (Tables 3 and 4).
The BJP-led coalition appeared to have a better strategy to reach out to voters, as two-thirds of the respondents indicated that someone had reached out to them during the election campaign to seek their support. Six out of ten respondents said the same about the Left-led coalition. It is interesting that only one-fourth of the respondents said that a supporter of Tipra Motha approached them on behalf of the party. It could also mean that Tipra Motha had a focused area of campaign and focused on areas he saw potential for support (Table 5).
The BJP-led coalition drew strong support among women, with nearly half of female respondents voting in its favor with a handsome gender advantage of 13%. The Left-led coalition received a high level of support among first-time voters. The BJP-led alliance fared better among voters in the 26-35 years age group and older. Tipra Motha found little support among first-time voters. Improvements in access to education led to a decline in support for the BJP-led coalition. The Left-led coalition drew support from both better-educated and illiterate voters. The BJP-led alliance fared better in urban areas and enjoyed a higher level of support among the lower and middle classes. On the other hand, the vote share of the Left-led coalition increased as one moved from less prosperous to an economically better off state. It is also important to record that more than a third of poor voters supported Tipra Motha (see Table 6). However, this may have been more due to the economically weak condition of the tribals who supported the party.
There are three clear indications of the Tripura verdict. The BJP-led coalition, which breached a Left bastion five years ago, enjoys popular support, though showing a decline compared to 2018. Second, Tipra Motha, a new player in state politics, has clearly indicated its presence. After winning the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections two years ago, he seems to be consolidating his presence. Third, the Left-Congress alliance was unable to come together to make any major electoral gains. The political chemistry of the alliance did not seem to make an impression on the voters as predicted by the alliance partners. There are clear pathways for all the major players in the state’s politics.
Sandeep Shastri is Vice-Chancellor of Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal and National Coordinator of Lokniti Network; Suhas Palshikar teaches political science and is its editor-in-chief Studies in Indian Politics , Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-Director of Lokniti-Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)