“Anna is our party founder and our party carries his name. The ideology that we follow is framed by him and we take pride in following in his footsteps. Any remark against Anna will not be tolerated. Our party carries forward Anna’s legacy and, in an alliance, one should clearly understand the Lakshman Rekha (the limit),” said AIADMK spokesperson Kovai Sathyan to ThePrint.
Earlier, ThePrint had reported that during the AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s (EPS) Delhi visit on 14 September to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda, the party had decided to bring up its concern about Annamalai’s constant remarks against the AIADMK, apart from other issues in the state.
Speaking to reporters in Chennai on 18 September, AIADMK leader D. Jayakumar said, “Enough is enough. We had asked the high command to control Annamalai and even after that if he continues to disrespect our leaders, it only means that he is acting under the BJP leadership’s advice.”
The split will likely have consequences for both the AIADMK and BJP. AIADMK may see the party losing out more in the southern region of the state, but will be successful in attracting the non-Hindutva, anti-BJP and anti-DMK votes, said analysts. Meanwhile the BJP, which was hoping to piggyback on AIADMK, will have to find itself a strong partner.
Speaking to ThePrint, political analyst Sumanth C. Raman said the split was “long overdue”.
“The AIADMK was feeling that they were being abused. How will you feel when personal attacks are made on senior leaders, or on party’s former leaders? The party cadres were definitely angry and if this alliance was to contest polls, the AIADMK cadres might not have voted for BJP. If the BJP high command had taken action against Annamalai, there might have been hope for the alliance,” he said.
Analysts ThePrint spoke to, however, add that there is more to this break-up. According to sources, during the September meeting, talks around seat sharing also took place with the BJP asking for close to 20 seats.
“Annamalai alone cannot be a reason,” said Priyan Srinivasan, a political analyst from Chennai, to ThePrint. “If Annamalai is removed, will AIADMK re-join the BJP? There have been some clear-cut demands from the BJP. One is for close to 20 seats in the upcoming polls and second is for the AIADMK to make peace with ousted leaders like OPS (O. Panneerselvam) and T.T.V. (Dhinakaran) ahead of the 2024 polls. Both requests might have put EPS on the spot.”
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AIADMK vs BJP
The rift between the AIADMK and the BJP state chief came to the fore in February ahead of the Erode East by-polls when the EPS camp announced its candidate — 65-year-old K.S. Thennarasu, a two-time MLA from Erode — without consulting its alliance partner BJP.
The BJP, in-turn, took its own time to announce its support.
The EPS camp further irked the BJP when they opened an election office for the party in Erode with a banner featuring images of all alliance partners but none from the BJP, including PM Narendra Modi. Moreover, the banner also named the alliance as ‘National Democratic Progressive Alliance’ instead of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This was later corrected.
The BJP later played broker between the EPS and OPS camps by making Panneerselvam withdraw its candidate for the bypoll, putting to rest speculations of a rift in the alliance.
But the fissures became more evident in March when the two parties indulged in a poaching war with each other, and later when Annamalai’s speech in a closed-door meeting went viral, during which he allegedly expressed his desire to cut ties with the AIADMK.
In April, while releasing the DMK files — on the alleged corruption by leaders of the ruling party — Annamalai had said that his party would expose the corruption of all parties that have ruled Tamil Nadu. This was seen as an indirect jibe at the AIADMK. In the past five decades, the two Dravidian parties — the DMK and the AIADMK — have dominated Tamil Nadu’s political scene, keeping national parties at bay.
The same month, Annamalai also said, “No one is our partner, everyone is our enemy”, while EPS reportedly asked reporters to not ask him “questions about (Annamalai)”.
However, by the end of April, things looked more settled following a meeting between AIADMK senior leadership and Shah and Nadda. AIADMK party sources had told ThePrint then that the BJP high command had advised the state leadership to work with alliance partners keeping 2024 Lok Sabha polls in mind.
A brief lull followed, but controversy erupted again in June when Annamalai was asked during an interview to The Times of India if he agreed that the “1991-96 period” — when Jayalalithaa was CM — was among the worst in terms of corruption in Tamil Nadu. Annamalai had said, “Many administrations in Tamil Nadu were corrupt. Former chief ministers have been convicted in courts of law. That is why Tamil Nadu has become one of the most corrupt states. I would say it is number one in corruption.”
This remark saw the AIADMK calling Annamalai “immature” and Jayakumar, back then, had purportedly said in a closed-door meeting that the party would “reconsider” its alliance with the BJP if Annamalai continued to target the AIADMK.
The culmination of this dispute came with the BJP state president’s remark on 11 September about Annadurai having allegedly spoken ill of Hinduism during an event in 1956.
To ally or not to ally
The AIADMK-BJP alliance could have helped garner the anti-incumbency vote against the DMK, but a break-up might make things difficult for the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu, said political analyst J.V.C. Sreeram.
“Both parties must realise that this alliance will be beneficial for them as there is an anti-incumbency against DMK and not (Chief Minister M.K.) Stalin. In the event of a breaking of alliance, the loser will be the AIADMK. Though they are holding on in the Kongu region (the western part of Tamil Nadu), they are losing their base in South,” said Sreeram.
“The BJP is always seen as a 3 percent party. If they are able to get even 10 percent, it will be growth for them. But if a 40 percent party like the AIADMK comes down to 20 percent, the biggest loser will be AIADMK, they will become a sub-regional party,” he added.
The AIADMK, Sreeram added, also cannot contest without a CM face. “That will be extremely dangerous,” he said. “A weakened AIADMK, a split AIADMK and a leadership without a non-PM face could put the party in danger.”
Raman, though, had a slightly different view on the matter.
He said that in order to survive, the AIADMK has to take on the BJP. This, he added, could also be a chance for the AIADMK to win back minority votes if they play their cards right. “Breaking off the alliance is good for the AIADMK. The BJP is trying to make inroads into the state and, in the process, will swallow the AIADMK. The AIADMK has to establish that they are a force,” said Raman, adding that the Dravidian party will have to make smart alliances with parties like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and try to consolidate the Thevar community vote in the south in order to do well.
“Now that they are free of the BJP millstone, AIADMK will be an attractive option to those who want to vote against the DMK,” said Raman.
Tough road ahead for BJP
Even as the AIADMK announced its decision to sever ties with the BJP, the party’s state leadership stood in solidarity with its state president — Annamalai.
“Annamalai is a principled politician who has left his job as an IPS officer and joined politics to do service for the people of Tamil Nadu, and here Annamalai has not spoken ill about Anna. He only quoted a factual event,” BJP state spokesperson Amar Prasad Reddy told ThePrint, adding that the AIADMK’s reaction is stemming from their fear of “Annamalai’s growth and PM Modi wave in Tamil Nadu”.
The BJP’s best bet now is to gain the support of Thevar strongmen like ousted leaders OPS and Dhinakaran, said Raman. “I can’t see the BJP win a single seat on their own. Their best bet will be to make an alliance with TTV, OPS, Sasikala and PMK.”
Priyan Srinivasan, though, has said that there is an overwhelming feeling in the state that the AIADMK will join hands with the BJP again before the 2024 polls.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
Also read: AIADMK breaks alliance with BJP, slams Annamalai — ‘Let’s see if they win more votes than NOTA’