As rebel Shiv Sena members, the future of the Maha Vikas Aghadi remains uncertain. We look at the statistics ruling the political turmoil in Maharashtra.
As rebel Shiv Sena members, the future of the Maha Vikas Aghadi remains uncertain. We look at the statistics ruling the political turmoil in Maharashtra.
the story So Far: In a setback to the Maha Vikas Aghadi, senior Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde and 11 other MLAs on Monday night revolted against the party and camped at Le Meridien Hotel in Surat. The number of rebels has now increased to 33 MLAs, who have now shifted to Radisson Blu Hotel in Guwahati, Assam.
Mr. Shinde’s Rebellion It comes a day after the BJP managed to win five out of ten seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Council, showing the support of 106 BJP MLAs, three each from Congress and Shiv Sena and 134 MLAs including other independents.
With this rebellion, the lower numbers are effectively
-
Shiv Sena: 22 MLAs, NCP: 51 MLAs (Except jailed MLAs who may be unable to vote), Congress: 44 MLAs. Total MVA strength is on 117 MLAs
-
BJP: 106 MLAs, NDA Allies: 7 MLAs. NDA’s total strength is 113 MLAs.
2019 election results
After the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena, jointly contested as a ‘Mahayuti’ alliance, won a majority against the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-Congress ‘Maha Aghadi’ alliance.
-
BJP: 105 seats
-
Shiv Sena: 56 seats
-
NCP: 54 seats
-
Congress: 44 seats
With BJP-Shiv Sena ties souring, Shiv Sena formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi government with NCP and Congress – showcasing a strength of 154 MLAs and crossing the halfway mark of 144 seats. In the subsequent bypolls, the BJP got one seat while the NCP lost one. The death of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke and imprisonment of NCP MLAs Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik has taken the strength of the 288-member Assembly to 285.
Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Division | photo credit: PTI
Since the reduced strength of the Assembly is now at 252 seats (285 MLAs – 33 rebel MLAs from the Sena), the halfway mark has now been reduced to 126 – pushing the MVA government into a minority. Even if 33 Shiv Sena MLAs switch to BJP, they will have to resign and contest in the by-elections.
MVA government formation
In the 288-seat assembly, BJP-Shiv Sena After the 2019 elections together it crossed the halfway mark of 144 seats with a majority of 161 seats. The Shiv Sena, however, insisted on a 50:50 formula for sharing the chief minister’s post with the BJP for two-and-a-half years and equitable distribution of ministry portfolios. Refusing to agree on such a formula before the elections, the then CM Devendra Fadnavis said that “the next government will be formed under the leadership of the BJP CM”. Furthermore, the BJP reportedly offered Shiv Sena only 13 cabinet portfolios, while keeping 26 for ministers, further irritating the Shiv Sena leadership.
The Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray at a public meeting in Aurangabad, Maharashtra on March 17, 2019.
Then, the Shiv Sena began alliance talks with the NCP and Congress – agreeing on a common minimum programme, division of ministry portfolios and electing Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray as CM. As soon as Sharad Pawar declared Thackeray as the joint CM candidate, his nephew Ajit Pawar revolted.
Claiming the support of all NCP MLAs, Ajit Pawar took oath as the Deputy CM of Maharashtra along with Devendra Fadnavis on November 23, 2019. With Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress securing their MLAs in hotels, the three parties moved the Supreme Court. Floor test of new government After the apex court ordered a floor test with open ballot voting in three days, Ajit Pawar resigned and returned to the NCP’s court. The three parties formed the new government – the Maha Vikas Aghadi government – starting Uddhav Thackeray’s first term as CM.
Read also | Recap of the political events leading up to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi
MVA Insider Fight
Since the formation of the government, several Congress MLAs, including veterans Balasaheb Thorat and Ashok Chavan, have expressed dissatisfaction over the declining role of the party. He has openly claimed that Mr Thackeray took the decision unilaterally without consulting his Congress M. Moreover, Congress state chief Nana Patole has repeatedly insisted that the Congress will fight alone for the Maharashtra assembly elections in 2024.
Congress MLA Ashok Chavan, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Congress MP Mallikarjun Kharge and Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut gave a grand photo opportunity for 162 MLAs at The Hyatt during the Maharashtra government formation crisis. Mumbai on 25 November 2019 | photo credit: Vijay Bate
Cross voting in Rajya Sabha and MLC elections
On June 10, trouble in the MVA surfaced on a public display after the BJP snatched four of the six Maharashtra seats. Rajya Sabha As Congress’s Imran Pratapgarhi, NCP’s Praful Patel, Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut, BJP’s Piyush Goyal and Anil Bonde won their seats as per the party’s expectations, a fight broke out between Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Pawar and BJP’s Dhananjay Mahadik for the sixth seat. Went. With the counting of votes stalled for over eight hours following complaints of violation of rules by the MVA and the BJP, the State Election Commission rejected the vote cast by Shiv Sena MLA Suhas Kande and barred the NCP legislators from voting, prompting Mr. Mahadik got 33 votes. Compared to Mr. Pawar’s 27.
On 20 June, the MVA suffered another setback when 12 Shiv Sena MLAs cross-voted in favor of the BJP candidate in the Legislative Council elections, allowing the saffron party to win nearly 21 votes more than the actual support of 113 MLAs. Out of 10 seats, BJP’s Praveen Darekar, Shrikant Bhartiya, Uma Khapre, Ram Shinde and Prasad Lad managed to win 5 MLC seats along with NCP’s Eknath Khadse, Ramraje Naik-Nimbalkar; Shiv Sena’s Sachin Ahir and Amshya Padvi and Congress’s brother Jagtap. The BJP’s additional seat was due to Congress’s Chandrakant Handore failing to win in the second round, while the Congress had 44 seats.
Shinde’s rebellion
After Monday’s cross-voting, as MVA parties begin introspection process, senior Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde Flew to Surat in Gujarat with 11 MLAs. Camping at Le Meridien Hotel, the rebel MLAs urged Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray to renew ties with the BJP – complaining against the style of functioning of the NCP and Congress. According to sources, the Shiv Sena MLA and three independent MLAs have now moved to Guwahati in Assam after talks between Shinde and Shiv Sena leaders Milind Narvekar and Ravindra Phatak – sent by Mr Thackeray – failed to quell the rebellion.
Thane: Policemen stand guard outside his residence, amid speculation that Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde is joining the BJP, in Thane, Tuesday, June 21, 2022. photo Credit: –
The Shiv Sena has now kept its remaining MLAs in various hotels in Mumbai to avoid further defection, while its allies NCP and Congress have maintained that the rebellion was an internal issue of the Shiv Sena – adding that all its MLAs are with them. While the BJP had initially said that it had no hand in Shinde’s rebellion, it is now exploring the possibility of staking claim for government formation.