Mint explainer: What’s at stake in Brazil’s tough Bolsonaro-Lula race?

Brazil’s election has turned into a nail-biter as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, called Lula, battle for another term in office. No candidate received more than 50% of the vote which would push the election between the two men to the second round. Brazil’s democratic institutions will be severely tested as the campaign heats up and divides already corrupt citizens. Mint broke up the campaign in Brazil.

What happened in the election?

Massive nationwide elections were held in Brazil on Sunday. Voters cast their vote for the presidency, local government and the upper and lower houses of parliament. In the headlines was the presidential election where 11 candidates were facing each other for the top post of Brazil. The focus was on two men: Bolsonaro and Lula. The former president was a captain in the Brazilian army before his three-decade career in politics. Lula, who served as president from 2003 to 2010, is a former trade union activist who made a name for himself while fighting the country’s military dictatorship in the 1970s.

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Lula won over 48% of the vote in the first round, with Bolsonaro trailing 43.2%. The result came as a surprise as Lula outscored his rivals in the polls by a double-digit margin. Prominent Bolsonaro allies also won seats in parliament. Since Brazilian election laws mandate a runoff election between the top two candidates, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, both men will close again on 30 October.

What do Bolsonaro and Lula stand for?

Both men are deeply divisive individuals.

Bolsonaro is a darling of the Christian right and has portrayed himself as a defender of traditional family values. His signature achievements include the privatization of Brazil’s vast public sector and reform of the pension system. He also secured a massive relief package during the pandemic, which put cash payments into the hands of poor Brazilians. However, he was widely criticized for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which 680,000 Brazilians died. With subsequent economic losses, supply chain shocks and inflation caused by the war in Ukraine, Brazil’s poor have been hurt. He has opposed women’s rights to abortion and is a self-proclaimed opponent of sexual minorities. He is also known for his deeply brazen political style and has been accused of corruption and nepotism.

Lula lives up to his previous reputation as president of Brazil in the 2000s. The boom in commodity prices allowed him to finance liberal welfare programs that benefited the poor and cemented his position as the most popular leader in the country’s recent history. However, he was implicated in a multi-billion dollar corruption scandal and sentenced to prison, known as Operation Carwash, which tarnished his reputation.

Why does this election matter?

The election is at its peak. Bolsonaro has claimed that the election process against him could be rigged. He has repeatedly cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has signaled to voters that he will not accept electoral defeat. Many in Brazil accuse Bolsonaro of undermining the country’s democratic institutions. If it loses and refuses to hand over power, Brazil will face a serious political crisis.

The second set of concerns is the environment. Bolsonaro has tried to extract natural resources from the Amazon rainforest in an effort to bolster Brazil’s economy. However, this resource development has caused significant deforestation in the rainforest, which absorbs large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Climate experts have warned that further deforestation could be disastrous for global climate goals.

What are the implications for India?

Both Bolsonaro and Lula have supported strong ties with India. Bolsonaro was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day in 2020, while Lula visited India three times during his seven-year term as president.

Economic activity between India and Brazil has expanded at a steady clip. Both sides are confident that bilateral trade will reach $15 billion this year. As energy inflation ravaged economies and markets engulfed by uncertainty, New Delhi and Brasilia have looked to each other to forge a new energy partnership. Brazil’s Petrobras and Indian Oil Corporation recently signed a long-term oil contract that points to the deepening energy ties between the two countries.

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