Mitigating the impact of cyclones: dual benefits of climate protection

A new study has shown that by mid-century global warming could put about 25 percent more people at risk of tropical cyclones than currently rising by one to two degrees Celsius. However, emissions reductions that would limit global warming to 1.5 °C could save more than 1.8 billion people from being exposed to tropical cyclones by the end of this century.

Already today, hurricanes and typhoons are among the most devastating natural disasters worldwide and potentially threaten approximately 150 million people each year. Along with climate change, population growth further increases the risk of tropical cyclones, particularly in East African countries and coastal areas of the Americas.

“If we add population growth to two degrees Celsius of global warming, in 2050 we will see an increase of about 40 percent more people exposed to cyclones,” said the researcher from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst. can.” (DWD), Tobias Geiger.

“As global populations are projected to peak around mid-century, climate change will cause more people to experience more intense cyclones – putting that higher population at greater risk,” said Geiger, who heads the new study. He is also a writer. A release in ‘Nature Climate Change’ said.

The global ambition is to limit warming to below two degrees Celsius, yet a different result as an interdisciplinary team of scientists from Germany, Switzerland and It is possible. The US found in a computer-based analysis: By 2100, population models predict an unpredictable, regularly declining population in cyclone prone areas globally.

This will partly offset the additional risk caused by warming, as Geiger outlined: “If we rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and only reach two degrees Celsius of global warming in 2100, then This is likely to limit the increase of people at risk of cyclones. accept it. This finding is important because it suggests that mitigating global warming potentially postpones the effects of a severe tropical cyclone into the latter half of the century, when there will be far fewer people at risk.”

Timing is critical when assessing the risk of cyclones

In the study, scientists analyzed the combined effects of demographic growth and climate change on people exposed to tropical cyclones – and found that the timing of reaching certain warming levels becomes critical. The results are even more pronounced at the country level, Johannes Gutshaw explained.

“Our model shows with unprecedented detail that all countries at high risk of tropical cyclones are projected to see an increase in risk in 2050. Due to projected population growth, we found a change in risk of about 300 percent in some East African countries. , up to 100 percent in the US and a strong increase for the Arabian Peninsula as well.”

This picture turns into scenarios that warm up less rapidly. Johannes Gutshaw added: “Basically, our computer model can calculate the impact of any warming scenario on a global and country scale, and calculate its impact for the number of people at risk from tropical cyclones. . Our findings most likely also hold true for the diversity of other climate extremes, the occurrence of which depends only on absolute warming, not on time.”

Katja Feller, co-lead of PIK’s Research Division on the Path to Change, outlined: “In line with the NDC, the number of people at risk of cyclones will continue to increase throughout the century, for example in hurricane-prone areas of the US.”

“Emissions reductions that would limit global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to warming under currently proposed emissions reductions, could save more than 1.8 billion people from exposure to tropical cyclones by the end of this century. Thus It is high time to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep as many people safe as possible,” the release said.