IIndia Today’s latest nationwide opinion poll has three messages for the Narendra Modi government and the opposition: economy, economy and economy. For the ruling party, it rings alarm bells louder than the planned noise around Amrit Kali, This is both an opportunity and a responsibility for the opposition.
Not that everyone will read this survey. We read opinion polls to forecast elections. As an ex-pollster, this bothers me. Any seat projection made in between two elections should not be taken literally. The actual content of a survey such as a current survey tells us about trends in public opinion.
For the record, therefore, I should report that the latest round india todayOne of the longest-standing barometers of public mood in our country, the Mood Survey of the Nation (MOTNS) projects that if the 2022 Lok Sabha elections were held between July 15 and 31, the BJP would win 283 seats (slightly less). less) will be achieved. Out of 303 seats won in 2019) and NDA will get 307 (much less than last time’s 353 seats).
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a methodological discomfort
But there are many reasons not to spend much time on these numbers. One, because we should not take any seat forecasts seriously 20 months before the election. Second, because the survey was done before the turmoil in Bihar. Voters, however, make a daring attempt to take this factor into account by conducting quick polling in the state. (They estimate that Nitish Kumar’s switch-over resulted in a loss of 8 seats for the BJP and 21 for the NDA).
I have to enter another reason for my uneasiness. From January this year, MOTNS has stopped giving face-to-face interviews at people’s homes. For the past six decades, this has been the time-tested gold standard method of survey research, and is still followed by trusted institutions such as the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Instead, C-Voter, the new agency that has taken over MOTNS, has shifted entirely to telephonic interviews. Now, it is well known that telephonic interviews are very cheap and hence are preferred all over the world. It is also true that the mobile density in India is very high now. Nevertheless, it is far from universal. And no matter how much you massage it with sophisticated statistical techniques, a telephonic survey leaves citizens at the bottom and thus skews responses.
It is particularly disappointing that india today, a magazine that pioneered quality opinion polls in India, chose to be economical with transparency requirements and brushed this methodological change under the carpet in a coded language. (“This survey is based on CATI interviews of adult respondents across all categories. Did you guess that CATI stands for Computer Aided Telephonic Interview? Did you know that MOTNS researchers stopped visiting respondents’ homes? We do not find any information about the gender, caste or class profile of the sampled respondents who answered the telephone call. Nor is there a break-up of key responses by different categories, even when You desperately need it (eg economic crisis by economic class and gender or communal status by religion).
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It’s the economy, idiot
Despite these limitations, the survey provides a wealth of information, particularly on broad trends of public opinion. The title quest is unmistakable: “It’s the economy, it’s stupid”. Top three answers to the question, “What is the biggest problem India is currently facing?” These are: price rise (27 percent), unemployment (25 percent) and poverty (7 percent). Financial problems are on everyone’s mind. And with good reason, if you follow the official and unofficial data on the state of the economy. Price growth tops the charts, as it often happens even when recorded inflation is low, although the level is not unprecedented. Given the dismal statistics on employment, it is not surprising that 56 per cent think the unemployment situation is “very serious”, while only 9 per cent say it is not.
Yet, I was surprised that people project their assessment of the current economic situation into the future as well. Survey research conducted over decades has shown that Indians are optimistic about the future economic prospects, no matter how bad their current situation. So, it came as a shock to me that 34 percent expect the country’s economy to get worse in the next six months as 31 percent expect it to get better, the balance six months earlier. Almost the opposite of . I do not remember any other recorded phase of economic pessimism in India except the second phase of COVID.
As a survey researcher, I trust people’s reactions to their household economic situation more than their assessment of the country’s economy. You can be fooled into believing a rosy or dark picture about a country’s economy, but not about yourself or your family’s economic condition. india today For the past six years it has been asking the direct question: “How has your economic situation changed since Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister in 2014?” Note that the question has Modi’s name and given his continued popularity, the answers should load in a positive direction. However, 36 percent of respondents report that their condition has worsened, compared to 28 percent who report improvement since 2014. This is extended in the future as well: more respondents expect their economic condition to worsen in the near future than those who expect improvement. These are terrible figures for any government, bad enough to throw the government out of power.
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from economy to politics
It all depends on whether people blame the government for their poor economic condition or not. Here too the news is not good for the Modi government. The positive rating of the government’s economic policies now stands at 48 per cent, the lowest recorded in the last six years. The negative assessment is now 29 per cent, the highest ever. When asked to name the NDA government’s “biggest failure”, the top three mentions pertain to the economy: price rise, unemployment, economic growth. To be sure, negative evaluations of economic policy have not yet surpassed positive evaluations. And due to public support for tackling other issues like Kashmir, Ram Mandir, corruption, and, surprisingly, COVID, the overall assessment of the government is still quite positive. But since inflation and unemployment are showing no signs of moderation, the government needs to worry a lot.
Is this the beginning of the end for the Modi government? It would be a hasty and lazy conclusion. The personal popularity of the PM is still quite high, even as the proportion of those who rate his work as poor or very poor has touched a new high. So far no opposition leader has come close to him in popularity ratings. While there is a clear unease about the state of democracy – those who say democracy is in danger, clearly more than those who do not – there is no clear focus on the destruction of democratic institutions or curbs on freedom of expression. Popular is not angry. Indians tend to work more about government vendetta and vengeance than the specifics of liberal democracy.
as this column argued last week, does little to support the idea that 2024 is a “complete deal” for the ruling party. Such a claim and the media circus surrounding it is nothing but a mind game that the BJP is adept at playing. Nor should we assume that the BJP is headed for defeat. The changed electoral baseline after Bihar’s turmoil, and the economic crisis reported in this survey, clearly indicate that the electoral race is still open. Now the onus is on the opposition to fulfill this historical responsibility.
Yogendra Yadav is one of the founders of Jai Kisan Andolan and Swaraj India. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Choubey)