PPakistan’s worst floods in many years could turn out to be the thin end of the nail to break frozen ties with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted his sympathy for the humanitarian disaster, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India should be “more liberal and more non-reciprocal” in pursuing the idea of regionalism.
“Saddened to see the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, injured and all those affected by this natural calamity and look forward to a speedy restoration of normalcy.” Modi tweeted Monday evening. The tweet garnered over 1 lakh “likes” and over 11,000 retweets, indicating that the constituency for ‘normalcy’ is real.
Separately, at the Asia Society Think-Tank event, Jaishankar Share your views on regionalism.
“I would be a very strong proponent of more regionalism, India is actually more liberal and more non-reciprocal and more effective in what it is building,” Jaishankar said. He was replying to a question by Milinda Moragoda, High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to India.
Of course, these words have been spoken before – as far back as 1997, when then-Prime Minister IK Gujral’s non-reciprocal foreign policy for South Asia was based on the premise that India’s size, population and GDP were too distant could. More generous towards your neighbours. This was famously called the “Gujral Principle”.
So, what Jaishankar is saying today is not new, which means many questions arise. First, why is the minister taking a soft stance on Pakistan today, when the BJP government has repeatedly said that there will be no talks with it until cross-border terrorism ends? what changed?
Second, did New Delhi need a humanitarian disaster to help the Pakistanis? And third, is there a back-channel that continues to operate between the two publicly separated countries – which resulted in the February 2021 agreement on peace and tranquility along the Line of Control – and that the two sides are ready to resume Waiting for the opportune time. fire?
Read also: Pakistani celebs flooded social media with relief calls. Citizens say ‘you contribute first’
Back-channel continues to operate
The cynics will say that all of the above are true. more than a thousand people dead An appeal has been made to the international community in the sudden floods in Pakistan and the country. planning minister Ahsan Iqbal says at least $10 billion Required for repair and reconstruction.
of Pakistan Commerce Minister Miftah Ismail The U.S. has also said that the country may partially lift restrictions on trade with India and open the Wagah border for limited trade in vegetables to help people tide over the floods. The trade ban was imposed in the wake of the Modi government’s decision to abrogate Article 370 that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir.
Certainly, it seems that a back-channel continues to operate – in any case, no self-respecting nuclear powers, especially neighbours, will refuse to talk to each other, even if they are publicly Deny any contact with When some officers of the Indian Air Force accidentally fired missiles at Pakistan in March – they were recently dismissed For this misdeed – Pakistan hardly made any noise, leading analysts to believe that contact was ongoing.
In addition, India’s interest in bringing a LoC ceasefire was fueled by concerns that Pakistani troops on the western border, along with Chinese troops on the LAC from 2020, should not pave the way for a two-front escalation of tensions.
LoC ceasefire in Kashmir February 2021 could not have happened without back-channel efforts. The joint statement said that both the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) have agreed to “address each other’s core issues and concerns, which have a tendency to disturb the peace and lead to violence” so as to avoid “reciprocal to achieve beneficial and lasting peace”. boundaries.”
While India had hoped that the LoC ceasefire would be a fresh start of things to come – that then-PM Imran Khan’s anger over the abrogation of Article 370 had subsided – those hopes were largely falsified when Khan launched his own The proposal to reopen the commerce ministry was rejected. While trading in cotton and sugar, he said that India should first do something about the special status of Kashmir.
According to Indian officials, the abrogation of Article 370 is a complete deal; It cannot be reversed. There have been some agitations over the electoral rolls for the Jammu and Kashmir elections, but the state question has been mired with concerns about the fairness of the electoral rolls.
In addition, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who has been criticized by Imran Khan for attempting to open trade with India without New Delhi making some movement on Kashmir, is seen making any political concessions on Kashmir, if he They will get hurt badly. Sharif is well aware that if elections are held in Pakistan today, there is every chance of Imran Khan coming back.
Read also: Shahbaz Sharif just realized there is a bigger problem than Imran Khan – Pakistan’s epic floods
What do you want Bajwa?
This leaves the most important card in the pack – what is Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa thinking. Is he going to retire now and go into the sunset after a few months? Or is he going to make a deal between India and Pakistan?
Bajwa has certainly been busy. A few weeks before the India-Pakistan Line of Control ceasefire, he talked about “mutual respect and peaceful coexistence”, his first remarks after the 2019 Balakot attacks. In July, a month before al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri was killed in Kabul, Bajwa summons senior US officials He urged them to expedite the assistance of International Monetary Fund (IMF) to give impetus to Pakistan’s economy.
With two months left for his retirement, is Bajwa interested in making peace between India and Pakistan?
As far as Modi is concerned, he would certainly like normalcy to prevail with Pakistan. After the Pathankot strike, the abrogation of Article 370 and the reaffirmation by the Balakot strike, it has been six years since the talks were called off. How long can India survive in this tense situation next to Pakistan?
That’s why Modi’s humanitarian tweet and Jaishankar’s comment on regionalism are so interesting. On the one hand, they can die a humiliating death. On the other hand, they are pregnant with the prospect of normalizing relations with a difficult neighbor.
Several Indian Prime Ministers have been to this location before – most notably, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Does Narendra Modi have the charm and foresight to separate the thorns from the roses and find the light at the end of a long tunnel?
The author is a consulting editor. She tweets @jomalhotra. Thoughts are personal.