Money and moderate good governance make climate-change adaptation easier

Then there are sandstorms. These are becoming more frequent and intense, thanks in large part to the drying up of marshlands north of Basra, where the Tigris and Euphrates merge. At least eight storms hit the city between mid-April and mid-May, causing or exacerbating all manner of respiratory problems. Basra residents are adapting to such weather by visiting hospitals more often: officials say 1,100 people sought treatment during one of the recent storms. Locals suspect that the number may have been much higher.

Mahmoud, a pulmonary specialist at a local hospital, who does not wish to be further identified, says the number of patients admitted with sandstorms as well as temporary and permanent respiratory problems is rising every year. While he usually saw 25 patients a day, during sandstorms he could see 200 in a few hours. If the number of storms continues to increase, he expects the hospital to be destroyed soon.

Iraq has the capacity to adapt to most of the impacts caused by climate change. It produces more than 4m barrels of oil a day, much of it from wells near the devastated Abu Ayman farm. But its former dictatorship, its invasions and its subsequent sectarian strife and corruption have left the state incapacitated: a new wing of Mahmud’s hospital, opened in 2010, stands as imperfect and harrowing evidence of the level of dysfunction Is. This breakdown hinders coordinated responses to climate change, leaving people to cope on their own or to suffer because they are unable to.

To its credit, the government is developing a “National Adaptation Plan” (NAP), an undertaking that is part of the UN’s Cancun Adaptation Framework, agreed in 2010. These plans aim to identify which people, infrastructure and industries are most vulnerable and work out ways for governments and foreign donors to help them. More than four-fifths of the developing countries have started working on such a plan. But only a third or so of people have completed one. Most of them, including Iraq, have not yet worked out what to do, let alone put the resulting plan into action.

It is based on the NAP process, among other sources of data, that the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has estimated that the level of necessary adaptation spending in developing countries will be $140bn-300bn per year by 2030, with half . Which was spent on just two sectors: agriculture and infrastructure.

do what comes naturally

Those amounts are inconveniently higher than the cost. The Climate Policy Initiative, an NGO, believes that around $46bn per year was invested in adaptation globally in 2019 and 2020. Take away that spent in developed countries and UNEP invests in developing countries as a fifth to a tenth of what is needed. What’s more, its need is estimated to be on the rise; As more NAPs are completed, previously under-appreciated needs are being identified.

Kuwait, the city-state closest to Basra of comparable size, completed its NAP in 2019. The document contains a series of steps to be taken in the short, medium and long term; assigns responsibility for these functions to specific government agencies; and provides the budget for the preparatory work. For example, $7.8m has been allocated to improve planning for protection against sea level rise and coastal erosion, with responsibility shared between the Environmental Protection Agency, the Ministry of Urban Affairs, several academic institutions and a planning body Has been. There are equally detailed plans for fisheries, water and health.

This is undoubtedly a help. But the bulk of the emirate’s planning and spending on climate change predates its closure. It happened during the kind of routine administrative work that a better-governed and better-situated country takes in its progress – even if, like Kuwait, that country is neither a model of bureaucratic efficiency nor environmental stewardship .

Kuwait has eight desalination plants, for example; Climate change was included in his plan, as were demographics and economic development. Electricity demand is also linked to climate, due to the country’s enthusiasm for air conditioning and because desalination consumes a lot of electricity. The Ministry of Power and Water is planning several combined desalination and power plants to meet future needs. By the same token, state-funded healthcare has expanded rapidly in recent years. A major new hospital opened in August to treat respiratory illnesses associated with sandstorms, as well as more universal crises such as heart disease. There is a push by the government for the spreading of mangroves along parts of the coast to protect them from storm surges and floods.

Kuwaiti academics and bureaucrats study the effects of climate change in great detail. Some employees of the Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research are investigating the relationship between extreme heat and mortality from various diseases. Looking at other infrastructure. The institute’s Ali al-Dousri monitors the cost of removing sand that builds up on roads and at oil facilities and military bases. They’ve also conducted field trials to find out which native plants make the best windbreaks and air filters. Their data on clearing costs and planting benefits inform decisions about greenbelt planting plans. Kuwaiti authorities have drafted in other experts to help design new suburbs to reduce the flow of sand through the air. Public-health campaigns instruct people on how to reduce their exposure to small particles that can cause breathing problems.

Sweden has an unrealistically optimistic view of what needs to be done to tackle climate change.

Mr. al-Dousari has also established that much of the increase in sand and dust falling on Kuwait comes from the same area of ​​dry marshland in Iraq that is causing problems in Basra. With the help of the Kuwaiti government’s agency for international aid, he is trying to plan a planting scheme in the area to reduce soil erosion. A country’s adaptation needs will not stop at its borders. Both the physical mechanisms of climate and the economic relationships that underlie them connect distant places, sometimes in unexpected ways. A recent report from the Stockholm Environment Institute argues that Sweden is ignoring vulnerabilities at the far end of its supply chains, and the choke points along them, as part of what it needs to do to tackle climate change. is promoting an unrealistically optimistic view of

The same can happen for Kuwait. It doesn’t need to worry too much about its own agriculture, as it has barely any, but that barely guarantees food security. And despite its capabilities, it’s not on top of everything. Barak Alhamd of Harvard University argues that authorities have not fully digested the propensity of extreme heat to increase chronic diseases. He says a ban on outdoor work between 11am and 4pm in the hottest months is not nearly enough; Kuwait needs to base such regulations on a more sophisticated index that takes into account forecasts of temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc. But he does not think that the Kuwaiti government is incapable of creating such a system. Quite the contrary: He’s campaigning to do so.

In rich countries, most adaptation occurs almost invisibly, of course, without necessarily being labeled. If the weather gets hot, people turn on the air conditioning and water their gardens more. If this increases demand for electricity or water, utilities build more power stations and treatment plants. If things go horribly wrong—a fire or a flood, let’s say—insurance is often there to foot the bill.

Such disasters prompt wealthy governments to plan more carefully for natural disasters, thereby minimizing losses the next time. Meanwhile, big businesses are used to dealing with uncertainty: potential changes in climate are just one more variable they must plan for. This does not mean that planned adaptation is unnecessary in the rich world, or that this is certainly the case, or that it can cope with everything a changed climate can do. This means that it is very simple.

there are not enough trees

Start with a loss, though, and planned optimization becomes a priority – you can’t expect substantial parts of it to accomplish things in the ordinary – and is harder to organize. This does not mean that governments, businesses or people do not respond to climate change. This means they are less able to do so well or efficiently. Those who lose their income and become dependent on handouts add to the capacity of governments already under pressure. They may lose their homes, and move into slums in ill-fated cities to make ends meet, as is happening in Basra, as former farmers like Abu Ayman move into the city. A similar influx was seen in Syrian cities before the civil war. Or they may embark on a long journey, to a country they hope can offer greater economic and material security—enduring risk along the way and terror upon arrival.

Look at Iraq again. Serious associations with climate change are almost entirely absent. Abdulkarim al-Romi, who works for Basra’s provincial government, couldn’t come up with a more convincing response than a vague plan to plant trees. Perhaps every university student should be obliged to plant a tree before graduation, he thinks.

For the time being, however, Iraq’s university students are adapting not by gardening, but by migration. In a survey conducted in 2020, 64% of Basravais said that the youth do not have a good future in their country. Another survey this year found that 37% of Iraqis aged 18-24 were actively trying to emigrate or considering it.

Climate change isn’t the only or main reason why so many Iraqis want to leave home: 40 years of conflict, misery and decay play a huge role. But climate change is exacerbating economic problems, further reducing the quality of life in regions of the country and reinforcing the belief among many Iraqis that their political leaders are not up to the task of governing. The worse things get, presumably, the more people will decide to try their luck elsewhere.

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