Monsoon is not made by rain alone

There is an often quoted saying in journalism: if one person says it is raining and another says it is dry, the journalist’s job is not simply to reconstruct ‘both sides’, but to look out the window and It is up to you to determine which one is correct. While this has struck me in a simple way and doesn’t really apply to most stories worth telling, it’s especially alarming for a reporter covering weather and climate beats.

Any journalist assigned to report on science and the environment must have reported the annual summer monsoon at one point or another. For the novice, monsoon means the end of summer, dirty roads, and RK Laxman cartoons of a soaked meteorologist and the only one in the room without an umbrella. Over time, these assumptions become the Monsoon Reporter’s mantra: “When will it rain? When will the rain stop? Why does our monsoon department always consider it wrong?” A senior meteorologist once gave me a two-word, broad answer: “It depends.”

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the mediator of all things weather, forecasts in April and May that the June to September monsoon is likely to advance. It also predicts the arrival of monsoon in Kerala. IMD does this a few days to the left or right of June 1. A few years ago, on 28 or 29 May, when I was still new, I got a call with a relative in Kerala who said it was raining and that the “monsoon” had entered with a vengeance. I checked on the website of IMD and till now there was no announcement. I called an officer who said that monsoon has not arrived. “But sir, it is raining in Kerala,” I said. “Rain alone doesn’t make a monsoon,” replied Yoda. The idea that I did my schooling was a lie in my mind, but the statement “it depends” puts things in perspective. Kerala, from where the monsoon begins its journey, has to tick several boxes, unlike the rest of India, for the monsoon to be declared. At least 60% of the 14 stations, most of them in the state but some in Lakshadweep and Karnataka, should have received 2.5 mm of rain on consecutive days. Then there are criteria like ‘depth of westerlies’ and ‘outgoing longwave radiation’ that need to be met. The former indicates strong winds and the latter is a longer name for cloud cover. I learned my lesson and with it went the ‘look out the window’ instruction.

The IMD’s favorite term of meteorologists, especially those who deal with the public, is ‘normal’. Some conditions are in the form of load. In 2009, the IMD stated that the monsoon would be 96% of the historical average. It has inbuilt 5% error margin. So, any number from 101% to 91% and the IMD can still be accurate and claim the monsoon to be ‘normal’. That year saw a massive monsoon failure with India recording its biggest drought in 25 years. The rainfall was only 77 per cent of the average. Disturbingly, there were signs of disaster in June itself, with the expectation that an El Nio, characterized by the warming of the central Pacific, would dry up the monsoon. “How did you get it so wrong,” I wanted to know. Personally, meteorologists assumed they knew a ‘deficit’ was coming. The IMD had a form of self-censorship for not using the word ‘drought’ and saying ‘deficit’ instead. “Political considerations,” one of them told me.

Climate change has complicated the recent monsoon. In recent years, September, the month when the monsoon officially recedes, has started to rain at times and has made up for losses in previous months. This rain usually spreads in October. “Isn’t this all technically monsoon,” I asked a meteorologist on October 1. “Right. But our monsoon calendar is strictly from June 1 to September 30. There is no monsoon rain before or after anything,” he replied. “But climate change has certainly changed these patterns. . Shouldn’t you account for it somehow,” I asked. Pat replied: “It depends.”

jacob.koshy@thehindu.co.in