China had threatened “serious consequences” if Pelosi landed in Taiwan.
Defying all warnings, Pelosi met with President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Wednesday. “Today, the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy … Here stands America’s determination to uphold democracy in Taiwan and around the world,” he said in a brief speech during the meeting.
The visit has humiliated and angered China. It has already taken some serious steps against the island and could take more repressive actions in the future, even a full-fledged invasion.
Here are some steps Beijing has already taken took:
military drills
Beijing has announced six exclusion zones encircling Taiwan to facilitate live-fire military exercises from August 2-4. Some cross into the island’s territorial waters, threatening to disrupt airline traffic and shipping in the Taiwan Strait – one of the world’s busiest trade routes.
The operations would include “regular guided fire tests in eastern waters” – or missiles – off Taiwan, pla Told.
Sanctions
Before Pelosi landed, China had banned food imports from more than 100 Taiwanese suppliers. On Wednesday, China’s commerce ministry halted natural sand exports to Taiwan without elaboration, and customs officials added a boycott to imports of some fish and fruits.
Chinese organizations, firms and individuals have also been banned, along with Taiwanese companies including Speedtech Energy and Highway Technology.
Taiwan’s economy is export-oriented. The share of exports in its total GDP is about 70%. Its main export partners are China and Hong Kong (40% of the total), ASEAN countries (18.3%), USA (12%), Europe (9%) and Japan (7%). Last year, China and Taiwan had bilateral trade worth $328.3 billion.
diplomatic protest
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister zi feng Pelosi’s arrival on Tuesday evening summoned US ambassador Nicholas Burns, telling the envoy that his country “must pay for the mistake”.
In addition to launching provocative military exercises and imposing economic sanctions, China may decide to take strong action:
Remember Your US Ambassador
Qin Gang, the US ambassador to China, who took his post last year, may be remembered. Experts say he will need to return to China soon for the upcoming Congress, to give Beijing a convenient start. Last year, China withdrew its ambassador to Lithuania following a dispute over Taiwan, and in 1995 Beijing withdrew its then-US ambassador, Li Daoyu, after Taiwan’s then-president. Took visited America.
China has also vowed to hold Taiwan’s “separatists” accountable and impose criminal penalties. xinhua news agency reported citing an unnamed spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Communist Party. It did not name anyone, and it is unclear how the measure will be implemented.
seize an outer island
There are several Taiwan-controlled islands bordering China. China’s most provocative response would be to annex an outer island. However, experts say this is unlikely and there is no indication that the PLA is preparing to do so.
However, Xi and his top military commanders may decide to block off Taiwan’s Matsu Islands.
Matsus is home to approximately 13,500 people. A chain of small islands and islets hugs the Chinese coast, about 9 km from the coast of China’s Fujian province at its closest point. Communist authorities have always considered Matsus to be part of China’s Lianjiang County.
China has already attacked the outer islands. During the Cold War, the PLA bombed Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands, located just off the coast of southeastern China, providing major US military support for Taipei.
invasion of taiwan
below Xi JinpingThe People’s Liberation Army has advanced to the point where a campaign to seize Taiwan seems increasingly plausible. Yet experts and officials say the scenario is far less likely because it would be a big drain for Beijing – both in terms of costs and casualties.
Given Taiwan’s advanced defenses and the US’s willingness to assist Taiwan, it is unlikely that China would take such a huge risk at this time.
Despite the huge military discrepancy between the two sides, many analysts believe that Taiwan’s location, difficult terrain and US support mean that China would find a full-scale invasion extremely difficult – and possibly too costly.
The Pentagon’s 2021 annual report on China said it had built the world’s largest navy by number of ships, but added that “an attempt to invade Taiwan will likely strain the PRC’s armed forces and cause international conflict.” would invite interference.”
The Pentagon report said that even if the Chinese military sidelined it on Taiwan, the difficulties of urban warfare “make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.”
However, China has started modernizing its military on a war footing and is expected to achieve the target by 2027.
(with inputs from agencies)