NDTV Public Opinion: How quotas for Lingayats, Vokkaligas could affect BJP

Lingayats, the traditional supporters of BJP, were earlier getting 5 per cent quota.

The controversial issue in the reservation policy framed by Karnataka’s BJP government – the transfer of four per cent reservation available to Muslims in jobs and education to politically powerful Lingayats and Vokkaligas – is likely to bring electoral dividends to the party.

NDTV’s new opinion poll in partnership with Lokniti- Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) has found that only 33 per cent of those surveyed were aware of the new policy. The percentage of people who fully supported each aspect of the government’s move did not exceed 30 percent. But the percentage of those who partially support the decision is high and they are likely to convert to vote.

The survey found that 45 per cent show some support for increased reservation for Lingayats, 37 per cent for Vokkaligas, 40 and 41 per cent for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Twenty-three per cent fully support the abolition of quota for Muslims and an even more, 25 per cent, partially support it.

In March, the Karnataka government ended the 4 percent Other Backward Classes quota for Muslims. The community has been recognized as a backward class in Karnataka for more than 100 years.

Lingayats, the traditional supporters of BJP, were earlier getting 5 per cent quota. The Vokkaligas, divided between the Congress and HD Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal Secular, had 4 per cent votes. Under the new rules, they are getting 7 per cent and 6 per cent interest respectively.

The quota for SC was also increased from 15% to 17% and ST quota from 3% to 7%. The Center has been asked to include the changes in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution as they exceed the 50 per cent cap set by the Supreme Court.

The changes are being seen as part of the BJP’s efforts to increase its reach in the state, where it has never won a majority on its own in the 224-member assembly. But this has angered marginalized sections such as the Banjara, Bhovi, Korcha and Korma communities, who have demanded a caste-based census, which is currently being supported by opposition parties, including the Congress.

During the survey – aimed at gauging the public mood ahead of the May 10 assembly elections in Karnataka – 2,143 voters spread across 82 polling stations in 21 assembly constituencies were interviewed.

The method of selecting them was “multi-stage systematic random sampling” or SRS – meaning that the constituencies, polling stations and the people who were interviewed were all randomly selected. The sample size, though small, is expected to be a representative section of the state and accurately reflect the mood of the electorate.