News Analysis | Political deadlock threatens Sri Lanka’s economic recovery

As Sri Lanka witnesses a serious financial disasterA political impasse at the top is threatening to delay any action for recovery.

The Rajapaksa administration has lost public confidence with repeated calls from citizens for the president’s resignation. Gotabaya RajapaksePrime minister Mahinda Rajapakse and his government. However, none of the ruling brothers appear inclined to step down, and Mr. Gotabaya’s move sees a new cabinet appointed without the three other Rajapaksas. [two of his brothers and a nephew]The protesters have made little difference.

They continue to agitate day after day, near the President’s Secretariat facing the sea and outside the Prime Minister’s official and private homes, facing scorching sun, thunder and police barricades erected to stop them. Protests have intensified in recent weeks as citizens struggle to find or buy essentials such as cooking gas, fuel, food and medicines – a record 21.5% in March 2022 – amid massive shortages and inflation.

In two significant initiatives this month, Colombo announced a default on nearly $51 billion of its foreign debt and held talks with the International Monetary Fund in DC for support in the ‘restructuring’ of its debt. The Fund said its technical discussions with the Sri Lankan delegation had been ‘fruitful’ and promised to “support Sri Lanka’s efforts” to overcome the current economic crisis, but the actual extent or nature of the assistance through possible structural adjustments has yet to be ascertained. remains to be clarified. Program. According to experts, it may take weeks or even months for the IMF package to come into force.

political deadlock

The regime has come to a virtual halt, with the ruling coalition breaking down, pushing Sri Lanka into an unusual political deadlock. Both leaders stubbornly remain in office, and their government is not only tainted but also fragmented, with lawmakers divided in their loyalty between the two brothers.

In early April, the government lost its formidable parliamentary majority when some 40 MPs sat separately in the legislature. Another group of ruling lawmakers are pressuring President Gotabaya to sack his brother, appoint an interim government with a non-Rajapaksa as prime minister. But Mr. Mahinda, the most seasoned politician in the ruling camp and its original political mascot, is clearly opposed.

In the first sure sign of a rift between the powerful siblings, Mr Mahinda on April 19 proposed cutting off the president’s powers to empower parliament, as a “short-term” response to the crisis. This was a day after the PM stayed away from the swearing-in of the “new cabinet” in the presidential office.

Mr. Mahinda’s statement in Parliament was a clear attempt to shift the power center of governance from the executive to the Prime Minister and, more specifically, from his younger brother Mr. Gotabaya himself, in two ways to reduce his powers in the passage of the government. Less than a year later. 20th Amendment K.

Mr Gotabaya would not be just a spectator in such a process, this became clear in his reaction to the Buddhist clergy, who expressed concern over the crisis. “I support the repeal of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution that you have mentioned, if any action is taken in this regard in Parliament, and would kindly remind you that such an amendment has to be made jointly by the President and Parliament. should,” he said in a letter dated April 25 to religious leaders, who hold considerable political clout.

Mr Mahinda’s office has said that the parliamentary group of the ruling Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Front) supports his leadership ‘unanimously’, even as some rebel government lawmakers voted against their PM. Indicated a willingness to join ranks with the opposition. a belief vote. All opposition parties have rejected the president’s offer to join an interim, all-party government. How will Sri Lanka resolve this political deadlock? Hindu Spoke to the MPs of the government and the opposition.

Media Minister Nalka Godaheva said: “I think we need an inclusive cabinet with members from all factions in Parliament to deal with this crisis. I offered to resign to make way for others, but the President did not accept my resignation,” he said. “I have nothing against the prime minister.” According to Mr. Godaheva, a new arrangement is in the interest of “political stability, which is critical to staving off the economic crisis”.

Former health minister Keheliya Rambukwela, who resigned along with her cabinet colleagues on April 3, said it was important to “put the interest of the country first” and prevent any further economic fallout. All former and current government MPs should “sit together, discuss and find a way out”. In his view, Mr Mahinda’s suggestion of curtailing the powers of the President is a “good temporary measure” before a new constitution is drafted.

Former Health Minister Kehelia Rambuquela. file | photo credit: AP

Underlining the divide between the President and the Prime Minister, Mr Rambuquela said: “This is not a serious conflict. We had promised a new constitution in our manifesto. We should come together and work on it, as well as assure the citizens that we will investigate the allegations against the government. This alone can send a strong message to the IMF, World Bank, ADB and other lending agencies,” he said.

Harsha de Silva, legislator from the main opposition Samagi Jana Balvegaya (SJB or United People’s Force), said her party was “confident” of securing a majority in the event of a fresh no-confidence motion. The SJB, along with other opposition parties, has around 70 seats, and would need the government’s support to achieve a simple majority of 113 votes in the 225-member house. The party is in no hurry to bring a trust vote.

“We must remember that the main demand of the people is ‘go home’. The broader interpretation of this is that the autocratic powers of the president must go,” he said, referring to the alternative his party is exploring – one that dilutes the powers of the president. Constitutional Amendment, which is broadly similar to that suggested by Mr. Mahinda. In addition, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa has called for the abolition of the working president’s post and the party has presented a proposal to the Parliament through a private member’s bill.

Main opposition party Samagi Jana Balvegaya MLA Harsha de Silva. file | photo credit: AP

“There is a huge demand from the people for the ouster of Rajapaksa. As the opposition, we have to take care of it. We are looking at various constitutional, legal options and the best possible time to take them forward. We cannot allow the situation to turn into chaos, we must act responsibly, ”said Mr. de Silva.

Trust vote or impeachment?

Jaffna’s opposition MP and senior constitutional lawyer MA Sumanthiran, whose advice has been sought by both Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and the opposition for necessary constitutional amendments to empower parliament, said the call of people on the streets is “very clear”. “It’s gotta go home. That means they recognize him as the primary and most proximate cause of the economic slowdown,” he recalled of Mr. Gotabaya’s decision to implement sweeping tax cuts just after his election in 2019. Said while doing

MA Sumanthiran, Jaffna MP. file | photo credit: AP

“His move reduced the government’s tax revenue by at least 25% and exempted nearly a third of our taxpayers from paying any tax. Months later, the economy began a downtrend, as we were kicked out of the international money market, where we were downgraded. We could no longer borrow to pay off other debts as Sri Lanka did in the past. Therefore, the call of the protesters for his resignation is completely justified. They want him and the government to step down – that is the political reality.”

The government should “realize” that political stability is “not only in numbers” in the House – 113 to show a simple majority in the Sri Lankan parliament – but also in having the “trust” of citizens, he argued.

Despite the apparent erosion of that public’s trust and confidence, the president refuses to step down. This political impasse, while citizens continue to protest, will potentially deter external creditors and partners from whom the government has sought help, critics of the government argue.

On the other hand, it is not easy to overthrow a President in Sri Lanka. Legislatively, if the opposition moves a no-confidence motion against the government, it may at best result in the resignation of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. The President will remain untouched.

“With the opposition refusing to be part of any interim arrangement headed by Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, it will only mean a reshuffle of the existing cabinet, basically a game of musical chairs. The protesting citizens will not accept it. Therefore, The scope of the NCM against the government is limited and in this context also meaningless, as what people are asking is for the President to step down,” Mr. Sumanthiran said.

There is another means available in the legislature to remove the President – an impeachment motion. The consideration of such a motion or a two-thirds majority in the House would require a contingent parliamentary majority at the discretion of the Speaker. Either way, this should be followed by a Supreme Court inquiry into the allegations leveled by those seeking to impeach the President. “This is a long drawn out process that can take up to a year or two, and therefore may not respond to the urgency of the current situation.”

Another unconventional suggestion comes from Nihal Jayavikrama, a former Secretary of the Ministry of Justice and legal scholar, who has demanded an NCM against the President. Although the Constitution does not provide for this, under Article 42 of the Constitution the President, as the head of government, is responsible to the Parliament, and nothing expressly prohibits the House from voting on such a motion. Although its passage has no legal consequences under the Constitution, Mr Sumanthiran said it would put “enormous moral pressure” on the president.

“He will realize that his presidency is no longer sustainable – he no longer has the support of the people, and the parliament to which he is also responsible echoes that sentiment. In a way, the elected representatives of the people As we will convert his vehement call ‘Gota go home’ into legislative action. This will give parliamentary expression to the people’s demand and quantify it through votes in the House. Even then, there will be no strict legal requirement for the President to step down But the President cannot ignore such a vehement claim of democratic principles,” he said.

Noting that the main opposition has garnered some support for its recent move towards the abolition of the executive presidency, Mr. Sumanthiran said that moving an NCM against the president would “at least help free some of its members”. It will help and gain confidence among those who oppose, who have not shown much faith in the opposition so far.”

• The Sri Lankan political impasse, while civilian protests continue, could potentially deter external creditors and partners from whom the government has sought help

• The government “must realize” that political stability lies “not only in numbers” in the House – 113 to show a simple majority in the Sri Lankan parliament – but also in having the “trust” of citizens.

• An impeachment motion would require a parliamentary majority, contingent on the Speaker’s discretion to consider such a motion or a two-thirds majority in the House.