no alarm needed

Given India’s rapid population growth, our workforce has long been estimated to exceed China. But how quickly this will happen may be a surprise. The United Nations’ World Population Prospect 2022 Report says that India may displace China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. At 1.412 billion this year, our population is estimated to have caught up with China at about 1.426 billion. The gap may close next year. Becoming the world’s largest nation as well as giving us global importance as far as common sense is concerned is not an achievement. China may have managed to turn what is seen as a liability into an asset, with its economy clearly poised to overtake the US, but a demographic dividend we have not yet reaped. Average productivity in India remains low, and we still lack the kind of education and health care foundations that all our people need to collectively climb the price-output curve. Still, we must not succumb to any pessimism that provokes calls for applicable birth control measures. Our headcount is expected to plateau and then decline. Our major challenge is to ensure a rapidly growing economic partnership.

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