Oil hits 7-year peak due to political risk, supply crunch

Brent futures rose 69 cents to $90.03 a barrel, hitting a high of $91.70 since October 2014. US crude closed 21 cents higher at $86.82 a barrel, hitting a seven-year high of $88.84 during the session.


US crude closed 21 cents higher at $86.82 a barrel, hitting a 7-year peak of $88.84
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US crude closed 21 cents higher at $86.82 a barrel, hitting a 7-year peak of $88.84

Oil prices hit a more than seven-year peak on Friday and recorded their sixth straight weekly gain as geopolitical turmoil heightened concerns over tight energy supplies. On a weekly basis, the benchmark contracts posted their longest gains since October. Brent futures rose 69 cents to $90.03 a barrel, hitting a high of $91.70 since October 2014. US crude closed 21 cents higher at $86.82 a barrel, hitting a seven-year high of $88.84 during the session.

Tight oil supplies pushed a six-month market structure for Brent into a sharp backward trend at $6.92 a barrel, the highest since 2013. Lagging occurs when contracts for near-term delivery of oil are higher than those for later months, encouraging traders to give up oil. From storage to selling it immediately.

Major producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia-led allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have struggled to raise their production levels. The market also reacted to attacks on the United Arab Emirates by Yemen’s Houthi group.

Prices were supported by concerns over a potential military conflict in Ukraine that could disrupt energy markets, particularly natural gas supplies to Europe.

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Analysts and oil company executives said that on the demand side, China’s crude oil imports could rise up to 7% this year.

“So far there have been no supply disruptions in Eastern Europe, so guess the risk premium related to those tensions is not that high,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Stanovo. “Some investors still prefer to keep their exposure,” he said.

US crude futures briefly turned negative in the first session.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, said the relatively soft US rhetoric on Russia could “get some air out of the tires in this crude rally.”

“But the big picture here is that with all the geopolitical uncertainty and supply side concerns, prices continue to fluctuate,” he said.

At its February 2 meeting, OPEC+ is likely to stick with the planned increase in its oil production target for March, several OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

“This is because some of the major OPEC+ group producers, including Russia, continue to struggle to meet their production quotas,” said Marshall Steves, energy market analyst at IHS Markit.

Steves said that despite rising rig counts as US production has struggled more of its way, production could be higher this year.

Analysts and oil company executives said on the demand side, crude oil imports into China, the world’s largest commodity importer, could rise up to 7% this year.

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