As the Omicron coronavirus variant spreads in southern Africa and pops up in countries around the world, scientists are eagerly watching a war game that could determine the future of the pandemic. Can world-dominated Delta’s latest competitor topple it?
Some scientists, judging by data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, suggest that Omicron may be the winner.
Jacob Lemieux, who monitored the variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard, said: “It’s still early days, but rapidly, the data is starting to be tampered with, suggesting that the Omicron delta has a number of locations in the delta. Is.” If not all can pass out of medical school.
But others said Monday that it was too early to know how likely it is that Omicron will spread more efficiently than Delta, or, if it does, how fast it might move.
Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said, “Especially here in the U.S., where we’re seeing significant growth in Delta, is Omicron going to change that, I think we’re going to think about that.” It’ll be two weeks.” I’ll know.”
Several important questions about Omicron remain unanswered, including whether the virus causes mild or more severe disease and how much it may protect against previous COVID-19 illness or immunity from vaccines.
On the issue of spread, scientists point to what is happening in South Africa, where the omicron was first detected. Omicron’s speed in infecting people and its near-dominance in South Africa has health experts concerned that the country is at the beginning of a new wave that could overwhelm hospitals.
The new version sharply shifted South Africa from a period of low transmission, averaging less than 200 new cases per day in mid-November, to more than 16,000 per day over the weekend. According to experts, Omicron is responsible for more than 90 percent of new cases in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the new wave. The new version is spreading rapidly and is gaining dominance in eight other provinces of South Africa.
“This virus is spreading very fast,” said Willem Henekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute. “If you look at the slopes of this wave that we are in at the moment, it is much faster than the first three waves experienced by South Africa. This indicates that it is spreading rapidly and therefore it is a very It can only be a contagious virus.”
But Honeycomb, who is also co-chair of the South African COVID-19 Variant Research Consortium, said South Africa had such a small number of delta cases when Omicron emerged, “I don’t think we can say” it’s out of delta. Is. Is.
Scientists say it is unclear whether Omicron will behave in the same way in other countries as it does in South Africa. There are already some indications of how it might behave, Lemieux said; In places like the United Kingdom, which does a lot of genomic sequencing, he said, “we’re seeing what appears to be a sign of an exponential growth of omicrons on the delta.”
In the United States, like the rest of the world, “there is still a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “But when you put the initial data together, you start to see a coherent picture: Omicron is already here, and based on what we’ve seen in South Africa, it’s going to be a big one in the coming weeks and months.” There is going to be tension.” The number of cases is likely to rise.
What this might mean for public health remains to be seen. Hannekom said early data from South Africa suggests that the reinfection rate with Omicron is much higher than with previous variants, suggesting the virus is developing immunity to some degree. It also suggests that the virus is infecting young people, mostly those without vaccination, and that most cases in hospitals have been relatively mild.
But Binnicker said things can be different in other parts of the world or in different groups of patients. “It will be really interesting to see what happens when there are potentially more infections in older adults or people with underlying health conditions,” he said. “What is the outcome in those patients?”
As the world awaits answers, scientists recommend that people do everything possible to protect themselves.
“We want to ensure that people have maximum immunity from vaccination. So if people aren’t vaccinated they should get vaccinated,” Lemieux said. “If people are eligible for a booster, they should get a booster, and then do all the other things we know to reduce transmission.” For.” – Masking and social distancing and avoiding large indoor gatherings, especially without a mask.”