The course of history has changed dramatically since the last meeting in Davos. Russia invaded Ukraine. It has shaken Europe to its core. The European Union was established to prevent such a thing. In fact, the Russian invasion could be the beginning of World War III – and civilization cannot escape it. The invasion didn’t come out of the blue. The world has been engaged for the past half decade or more in a conflict between two conflicting systems of governance: an open society versus a closed one.
In an open society, the role of the state is to protect the liberty of the individual; In a closed society, the role of the individual is to serve the rulers of the state. Other issues that concern the whole of humanity have had to retreat from this systemic struggle. That’s why I say that our civilization cannot survive. After the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the tide turned against open societies. Repressive regimes are now laying siege to ascendant and open societies. Today China and Russia represent the greatest threats.
Why did this shift happen? Part of the answer is to be found in digital technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI). In theory, AI should be politically neutral: it can be used for good or for evil. In practice, the effect is asymmetric. AI is particularly good at creating tools of control that thwart oppressive regimes that threaten open societies. COVID also helped to legitimize such instruments of control. President Xi Jinping’s China is an example of a state that heavily monitors and controls its citizens.
The alliance between Beijing and Moscow has “no boundaries”, as they declared just before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Given the Ukrainian resistance, it did not go as planned. But while Putin’s military has committed atrocities, the situation is not entirely bleak. Ukraine has a fighting chance and Europe is drawing closer.
Putin and Xi, now in alliance, have a lot in common. They rule by intimidation, and as a result, make big mistakes. expected to welcome Putin as liberator in Ukraine; Similarly, Xi sticks to a zero-Covid policy that cannot be sustained. Putin appears to have admitted that his offensive was a terrible mistake and is preparing to negotiate a ceasefire. But it is difficult because it cannot be trusted. The situation is confusing. A military expert opposing the invasion was allowed to go on Russian TV to inform the public how bad the situation was. Later, he took an oath of allegiance to Putin. Interestingly, Xi continues to support Putin, but no longer without limitation.
This may begin to explain why Xi is likely to fail. It is not in China’s interest to allow Putin to attack Ukraine. Although China should be the senior partner in the alliance, Xi explicitly allowed Putin to seize that position. But Xi’s biggest mistake was doubling down on his zero-Covid policy. The lockdown has been disastrous for the Chinese economy, which has been in free fall since March. In April, the Nationwide Highway Logistics Index, which measures road freight across China, fell to 70% of its level a year earlier. In addition, the Caixin Composite PMI Index, which uses data collected from some 400 companies to track private sector business trends in China, fell from 43.9 in March to 37.2. When the PMI value is below 50, it means that the economy is shrinking. China’s declining economic activity is bound to have global consequences. These trends will continue until Xi changes his course. But it seems he can’t admit a mistake. And so, with disruptions in supply chains, global inflation is liable to turn into a global recession.
We must reduce the risks. For the West, the dilemma in dealing with Russia is that the weaker Putin becomes, the more unpredictable it becomes. EU member states have felt the pressure. They realize that Putin can’t wait until he can develop alternative sources of energy before turning off the gas taps, while it really hurts, as he did in Bulgaria, Poland and Finland. done for.
Europe’s reconciliation will face a serious test, given the varying levels of energy dependence on Russia, but if EU members continue to act together, it could threaten both Europe’s energy security and its leadership on climate change. can strengthen.
What about China? Xi has many enemies there. No one dares to attack him directly because he controls Chinese instruments of surveillance and repression. But it is well known that discord within the Communist Party has intensified. Contrary to expectations, Xi may not get his third term because of the mistakes he has made. But even if they do, the Politburo cannot give them full leeway to select future members. This would reduce his power and influence, and reduce the likelihood that he would remain the ruler of China for the rest of his life.
Meanwhile, as the war in Ukraine continues, the fight against climate change has taken second place. Nevertheless, experts tell us that we are already far behind and climate change is on the verge of irreversible. This could be the end of our civilization.
I find this prospect particularly frightening. Most of us accept the idea that we will eventually have to die, but we take for granted that our civilization will survive. Therefore, we must mobilize all our resources to end the Ukraine war. The best and perhaps the only way to preserve our civilization is to defeat Putin. ©2022/Project Syndicate
George Soros is the founder and president of the Open Society Foundation and the author of In Defense of Open Society.