Pakistan’s neutrality, Taliban’s concern

The independence or neutrality of Pakistan’s so-called foreign policy is going to have serious implications for its allies in Kabul. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has diverted global attention from Afghanistan. As the refugee crisis in Ukraine intensifies, the Afghan Taliban will face greater challenges to save Afghanistan from economic devastation, financial bankruptcy and humanitarian crisis. The Taliban regime in Kabul has multi-faceted interests, not just strategic interests, related to relations with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistani policy in Afghanistan is also determined by the rigor of strategic commitment, making it nearly impossible for Islamabad to give up its obsession with shaping a new political order across the Durand Line.

Impact of Pakistan’s stand

The Afghan Taliban are now going to be impressed by the Pakistani Prime Minister’s diplomatic maneuvers in the mine area of ​​Ukraine. First, it will reduce the chances of the Taliban getting immediate international recognition as Pakistan’s stance towards Russia has deepened the mistrust between Washington and Islamabad. The Western bloc did not take Mr Khan’s visit to Moscow well last month, which was seen only as justifying Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stance on Ukraine. Triggering an unexpected chain of events, Mr Khan’s three-hour-long meeting with Mr Putin gave the impression that Islamabad was backing Russia’s military action. Clearly, little thought was given to the diplomatic or strategic implications of the move in Islamabad. The problem of trust deficit between Pakistan and the West may be compounded by the rhetoric required to mobilize Pakistani public opinion behind any major foreign policy move by Islamabad. The Taliban’s resurgence has also not resulted in the outcome Pakistan’s military establishment was hoping for, and the delay in internationally recognizing the Taliban regime will only further frustrate Islamabad.

Second, the situation in Afghanistan has become complex and uncertain. The Afghan people are in dire need of food, medical supplies and cash. In late February, the Joe Biden administration decided to ease the pain of sanctions that had caused the collapse of the Afghan economy. But these measures have not reversed the impact of earlier US actions to seize half of the $7 billion frozen in Afghan assets. Now Pakistan’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is going to be overshadowed by Afghanistan and its refugees.

It is clear that Russia’s actions in Ukraine have left Islamabad in a predicament that it could not have imagined. As the Imran Khan-led hybrid regime signals a subtle shift in Pakistan’s diplomatic position towards Russia, Islamabad’s talks with Europe on the issue of rehabilitating the Taliban in the international order will become difficult. With more than two million Ukrainian refugees fleeing conflict zones and taking refuge in various EU countries, Afghan refugees living in Pakistan are likely to receive little from Western countries.

There is already donor fatigue in relation to Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Islamabad has its own economic problems, many of which are linked to itself. As Pakistan remains on the ‘grey list’ of the Financial Action Task Force, a Paris-based global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, it has become difficult for the political leadership to stabilize the economy and prevent negative impacts. An unrecognized Taliban regime in its neighbourhood.

The unexpected victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan has increased the threat of domestic terrorism in Pakistan and the state’s inability to prevent terrorist attacks. ISIS-Khorasan recently claimed responsibility for a suicide terror attack on a Shia mosque in Peshawar, the capital of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, in which more than 60 people were killed.

Pakistan hosts about 1.5 million Afghan refugees. Around 300,000 Afghans have fled to Pakistan since the Taliban took power in August 2021. As the loss of significant foreign aid, a severe drought, and a currency crisis ravaged Afghanistan’s economy, the Taliban regime is in no position to take the refugees back from Pakistan.

There is no taker for Islamabad’s false claim that it has so far maintained neutrality – neither condemning Russia’s military attack nor supporting the Western coalition’s position on Ukraine. Given Pakistan’s growing dilemmas, pragmatic voices in the Taliban regime may demand greater autonomy from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in dealing with the outside world. The ISI is believed to be the driving force behind the Taliban’s military victory over the Western-backed regime. In September last year, Pakistan’s then intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, visited Kabul to influence the final decisions of the Afghan Taliban with regard to the interim cabinet, preventing Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar from leading the government in Pakistan. Supporters supported statistics. Therefore, any move by the Taliban to act independently of the will of the ISI will reduce Islamabad’s overall influence in the direction of Afghanistan’s foreign policy.

The Taliban’s acting interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who was designated a terrorist by the US, recently made a rare public appearance and asked the international community not to view his government as a threat. Emphasizing on the need for foreign aid to revive the country, Haqqani said the Taliban are committed to signing the Doha Agreement with the US, after all, the Taliban are not oblivious to the fact that neither Russia nor China Is able to pump in the necessary resources. for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. As Pakistan slowly moves towards a new strategic alignment with Russia and China, concrete gains for Taliban-led Afghanistan are still uncertain. But the Taliban are also aware of structural constraints on any autonomous foreign policy stance. If Islamabad halts its international campaign to support the Afghan Taliban, Kabul will lose its main foreign backer.

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The changing geopolitical landscape and the growing alignment between Islamabad and Moscow cast a shadow on the Taliban’s ability to create a more effective Afghan state. The belief of the Taliban regime is as much about values ​​and principles as it is about geopolitics. Therefore, expectations of early recognition should be lowered now and diplomatic steps taken more cautiously in the future. With the Ukrainian conflict in Europe getting worse, there is also the danger that Afghanistan may soon be forgotten in the western capitals. If Afghanistan becomes a low priority for Europe, its consequences will be dire for Afghans as well as destroy Pakistan’s position in Afghan affairs.

Vinay Kaur is an assistant professor at the Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel Police University, Security and Criminal Justice, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, Washington DC.