TeaTamil Nadu’s main opposition party, the AIADMK, is headed for a split in its golden jubilee year. Former Chief Minister EK Palaniswami is set to take over the reins of the party, bypassing his former deputy O Panneerselvam. The latter can only hope to delay the inevitable through judicial interventions but dies. The OPS must accept the leadership of the EPS in the AIADMK or find its place in the sun outside.
In any case, the crisis in AIADMK is not going to end soon. When MG Ramachandran broke away from the DMK and founded the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (which later became the AIADMK) on 17 October 1972, he was a matinee idol. After M. Karunanidhi, the then CM and DMK president suspended MGR, a youth from Udumalpet. set himself on fire,
Fifty years later, when EPS is trying to get rid of OPS, some are shedding tears for the latter. The OPs are left with two options – form a new party like MGR or fight for control of the party as J.J. Jayalalithaa against MGR’s widow Janaki Ramachandran. Incidentally, in the 1989 assembly elections, the results of which settled the succession battle in the AIADMK, the Jayalalithaa faction accused Janaki of being soft on Karunanidhi; The EPS faction is making the same allegation on the OPS today.
MGR and Jayalalithaa were successful in their ventures as they were popular cine stars with fan base. Neither EPS nor OPS has any fan following. If seen, he is seen as the leader of the Gounders and Thevars, the two communities that form the backbone of the AIADMK. Hence the EPS-OPS power struggle could have serious implications for the AIADMK, which is struggling in the absence of a charismatic leader.
Read also: EPS one step ahead in AIADMK power fight, OPS got ‘crown’ due to displeasure of council meeting
Tough move of BJP
In the midst of all this drama in the Dravidian party, its ally Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be dealing strictly. While Panneerselvam is actively wooing the BJP, Panneerselvam, on the other hand, has no inclination to harass the EPS, which looks set to take the reins of the AIADMK.
It was the BJP that played a key role in unifying the AIADMK after Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016. The OPS had said that it was only at the behest of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. agree to merge His faction with EPS and joined the government in August 2017 as Deputy CM.
On 23 June, the day the OPS was humiliated and humiliated by an EPS supporter at the AIADMK general council meeting, BJP general secretary in-charge of Tamil Nadu CT Ravi and state BJP president K Annamalai called on the EPS and OPS separately to seek support. called. NDA’s presidential candidate Draupadi Murmu. The fact that Ravi and Annamalai first met the EPS and then the OPS was seen as a message that the BJP accepts the primacy of the EPS in the organizational structure of the AIADMK. In AIADMK, the OPS is the coordinator and the EPS is the co-ordinator. Earlier, BJP MLA Nainar Nagendran had supported the idea of ”unitary leadership” or a single leadership of the EPS faction, Saying AIADMK needs a good leader who is efficient and “worthy of both”.
When Murmu filed his nomination papers, Panneerselvam went to Delhi to appear. However, he did not get time to meet PM Modi or Union Home Minister Amit Shah. This was seen as a hesitation and a sign that the BJP was rapprochement with the AIADMK’s emerging ‘single leader’ EPS and was preparing to break bread with them. While the OPS is enthusiastically dating the BJP, the BJP is yet to take any side in the internal war of the AIADMK.
Read also: ‘Majboori Ki Shaadi’: Why AIADMK is unlikely to break away from BJP despite public discord?
Palaniswami-led AIADMK will give a tough fight to BJP
While the EPS cooperated with the BJP leadership during his chief ministerial tenure, he was no slouch. In November 2020, months before the assembly elections, the Palaniswami-led government permission denied To BJP for starting statewide Well Yatra. The national party was in favor of an alliance with Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran ahead of the assembly elections last year. EPS will not have it. In fact, the Ops’ perceived softness towards Sasikala became one of the sore points between him and the EPS.
After the assembly elections, CV Shanmugam was one of the first leaders blame bjp For the defeat of the party. A few months after the election, he said, “the BJP alliance completely affected the minority vote.” The Palaniswami-led AIADMK had nominated Shanmugam to the Rajya Sabha in May.
On May 31, AIADMK organizational secretary C Ponnaiyan, an EPS loyalist, came down heavy Accused the BJP of trying to grow at the expense of the Dravidian party. He said the development of BJP is not good for AIADMK or Tamil Nadu or Dravidian policies.
While OPS tried to distance the party from Ponnaiyan’s remarks, EPS came out in support When the BJP tried to reprimand the organizing secretary.
When the General Council of AIADMK met on June 23, the agenda of the meeting included praise for PM Modi on the nationwide COVID vaccination programme. This was reportedly included at the request of the OPS. However, the council, dominated by EPS loyalists, rejected it along with 22 other items. For the July 11 council meeting – mainly to elect EPS as interim secretary general – Modi’s reference is not on the agenda. Hindu informed of The AIADMK believed that the Dravidian party had no need to praise PM Modi.
Read also: BJP is not an ‘alternative pole in Tamil Nadu politics’. Its local election results show why
Option in front of BJP on reversal of EPS
The BJP should also be bothered by the fact that the Palaniswami camp is wary of the national party’s ambitions in Tamil Nadu, even if it wants to continue Alliance till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections so that the appeal of PM Modi can be taken advantage of even in Dravidian land.
Few would bet on the continuation of the alliance after the Lok Sabha elections. The AIADMK is already facing the heat of the ruling DMK, which has been playing the card of regionalism and sub-nationalism and often fueling Centre-vs-Tamil Nadu narratives. The Modi government’s refusal to engage in talks with states – be it on agricultural laws, NEET, JEE or CUET – makes life more difficult for its regional allies. The AIADMK’s equation with the BJP is likely to become increasingly tense, given that the Palaniswami camp is trying to distance itself from the national party.
If and when the EPS decides to distance its party from the BJP, it has the option of tying up with the OPS and bringing Sasikala and Dinakaran under the umbrella. Annamalai, a Gounder like the EPS, could move to reduce the latter’s influence in western Tamil Nadu, wooing Thevars (along with both the OPS and Sasikalas) in the southern part. Add to this Modi’s fan club, however small, and those disillusioned with Dravidian politics, and the BJP’s prospects in Tamil Nadu don’t look so bad. But that happens when everything happens in that imaginary scenario. For this to happen, the BJP will first have to shed its image as a Hindi-speaking party in Tamil Nadu with ‘uniformity’ as its core agenda.
Modi and Shah are known for creating opportunities in adversity. We all know that in case it is vacated by the Dravidian party, AIADMK, they will be looking for a national party to fill the opposition space in Tamil Nadu. But there are many impossibilities. What if the AIADMK, led by a single leader, Palaniswami, retaliates? What if another Dravidian party – let’s say, Seeman’s NTK – jumps in to fill the spot?
Also, for now, the BJP would like to keep Palaniswami in good humour, at least till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The author is the political editor of ThePrint. He tweeted at @dksingh73. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)