IIt has become an axiom in political circles that the people of India vote differently when it comes to electing Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister and when it comes to electing the Chief Ministers. That is, when Modi asks for their votes for himself, they do not think twice. But when he seeks votes for his candidates in the states, the same voters are attentive and do not necessarily oblige him.
A commonly cited proof of this differential voting behavior is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s landslide victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, six months after its defeat in the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh assembly elections. This general perception is confirmed by surveys which show a rise in Modi’s popularity despite the BJP’s defeat in the states.
The general reaction to Saturday’s verdict on the Karnataka assembly elections follows the same pattern – that it means nothing for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The main argument is that regardless of who the Kannadigas voted for in the 2023 assembly elections, they have consistently voted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections – 18 seats in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2013 and a total of 25 seats in 2019. Of the 26 seats, this argument holds true only for the last four elections – once when Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh were PM and twice when Modi was PM.
Prior to 2004, three assembly and Lok Sabha elections had witnessed single party dominance in both – Congress in 1999, Janata Dal before that and Congress in 1989. Even in the three assembly and Lok Sabha elections, this trend remained. Because people had voted differently in the 1984 Lok Sabha and 1985 assembly elections – for the Congress in the first and for the Janata Party in the second.
What I am running is that it is safe to assume that if Kannadigas voted for the BJP in the last four Lok Sabha elections, they may do so for the fifth time in 2024 as well. Fair enough, especially when all the surveys consistently confirm Modi’s low popularity. But, without contesting this notion, we can note a few points. Kannadigas did not vote separately in 2018 and 2019. In the 2018 assembly elections, he nearly brought the BJP to power, making it the largest party with only nine seats in the majority. Its vote share was also much higher than in 2013. Another point to note is that in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, during the ‘Modi wave’, the Congress which ruled Karnataka won 9 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats. , Now that it has won a landslide victory in the assembly elections, it is in a better position for 2024.
As far as the perception of people voting differently, if surveys are left out, the example of 2019 election may not necessarily hold true for 2024 as well. Simply because the Balakot airstrikes changed the mood of the country in 2019. The cynical demands of opposition leaders for proof of damage done to the Pakistani side deepened its electoral ramifications.
So, once we agree with the impact of Balakot strike on 2019 Lok Sabha election results, we can understand why PM Modi should be worried about 2024. It is true that there was a sense of despair about the state of affairs in Karnataka. Opposition successfully created atmosphere or an atmosphere of mistrust against the Bommai government, its ‘PayCM’, ‘40% commission government’ and other campaigns centered around alleged misgovernance and fostering a sense of insecurity among various caste groups, especially Lingayats. Lokniti-CSDS Post Election Survey Has shown That only one-seventh of the respondents considered the actions of the Bommai-led government while voting. One-fifth of voters considered the actions of both state and central governments. 42% of voters were “somewhat dissatisfied” and “completely dissatisfied” with the performance of the Bommai government; In the case of the Central Government, it was 41 per cent.
BJP machinery is becoming ineffective
So, why did the BJP fight the election on polarizing issues including Tip Sultan, Hijab, Halal and ‘Love Jihad’, among others? Whose idea was it to keep humiliating BS Yeddyurappa after becoming the CM in 2019 and even after stepping down in 2021? Whose idea was it to replace him and make Lingayats feel humiliated? Whose idea was it to not give tickets to Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi and rub salt into their wounds? Whose idea was it to change the reservation quota which left every community insecure and confused? Whoever gave these views to the BJP high command certainly did not have the pulse of the voters of Karnataka. But here’s the problem: If the party’s national president JP Nadda didn’t have the pulse of voters in his home state of Himachal Pradesh, how can PM Modi expect to know better than others? If the Basavaraj Bommai government was faltering, it was there for all to see. How did the BJP high command fail to see this? And if it did, why hasn’t anything been done to fix the problem? And if the high command was happy with Bommai’s governance, why did the party completely ignore it and make Modi and his governance the central issue? There are many questions but no answers.
PM Modi should be worried about this. Because something similar happened in Himachal Pradesh too. The BJP celebrated its success in the Northeast but the fact was that it barely managed to retain power in Tripura. Had it not been for Pradyot Debbarma’s Tipra Motha Party (TMP), the BJP would have lost power in Tripura, ThePrint reported.
The BJP celebrated its success in Meghalaya and Nagaland, but the fact was that the party made little gains in these two states as well, winning 2 seats in Meghalaya and 12 in Nagaland – as it did five years ago when it won both. Joined the government in the states.
It is understandable that the BJP would go to town on what was hardly a cause for big celebration. Because he had to give the message of invincibility to demoralize the opposition and motivate the party workers. But PM Modi would know the reality. He knows that Gujarat’s victory last year was only his. Himachal’s results were disappointing. The results of the elections held two months ago in the three northeastern states were not encouraging. And now, Karnataka shock! PM Modi has reasons to be worried not only about the next round of elections in five states in November-December but also about the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
He knows that his party is on the wane. He must be realizing now that the much publicized organizational machinery of the BJP becomes ineffective if he himself is not effective. Succeeding Chandragupta, there are many Chanakyas to share the credit. But if Modi’s magic does not work in the assembly elections, then Chanakya blames the party’s failure on the small people.
BJP needs a new narrative
There has always been debate about the need for opposition parties to craft a new narrative. Anyway, the opposition is trying to create a new narrative around the anti-incumbency wave. It is the BJP which now needs a new narrative. The same polarization strategy, the same propaganda of Hindutva, nationalism, chauvinism, and reliance on PM Modi to garner votes through his charismatic and welfare-oriented governance – nothing has changed for the BJP since 2014. BJP’s election strategies can be predicted today. His vulnerability is exposed when he has a smart, thinking opponent like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, or DK Shivakumar.
So, how can PM Modi fix the drift in the BJP? First, he may want to fix accountability for political and electoral lapses. He may want to re-think the BJP’s election strategy, which is becoming so tired and predictable. He needs to stop this high command culture and start promoting leaders who are contributing to the growth of the party – like Yogi Adityanath, Himanta Biswa Sarma, and Devendra Fadnavis – and not those who are trying to promote their personal ambitions. feeding off his popularity.
Party reforms aside, Modi needs to figure out why people aren’t buying into his promise of twin-engine development anymore. For decades, he had his ear to the ground until he became the chief minister of Gujarat in 2001. Blame it on the constraints of a CM or a PM, they are largely isolated and dependent on the response of others, which would obviously give them a good chance. Picture. With the PM in office for nine years, he needs updates on what is happening on the ground. He needs to convince his colleagues in the party and government to stop believing his own propaganda – that all is well and everyone is happy. There is an urgent need to conduct Census 2021 to ascertain the demographic and socio-economic changes in the country since Modi took over the reins of the country. The government shows so much sympathy for the migrants but does not want any concrete data about the migration that the census would provide. Members of the ruling party talk of some minority communities growing and hindering the overall development, but they do not want any concrete data to prove it. They talk about the number of houses they have built, but they don’t want to know how many more people need them. They talk about how the lives of the common man have changed with the welfare measures of the Modi-led government, but they don’t want any data to back their claims with facts. They don’t want the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey to tell us how much inequality has increased or decreased, how much people are spending monthly on food or non-food items, what cereals they are eating, how much people are spending on rent or education. doing, how the bottom 5 percent are doing compared to the top 5 percent, what energy sources are people using for cooking or lighting, and so on. The government dismissed the results of the 2017-18 expenditure survey on so-called quality issues, about which no one is convinced. It was rejected outright because the findings did not match the tall claims of the Modi government. The findings of another survey will be ready for 2022-23, but the government is reluctant to make them public before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as per reports The Indian Express,
That is why when the BJP launches a loud campaign making tall claims about how it has changed the lives of citizens, there are many in the crowd who may feel cheated and neglected because they have not seen those changes in their lives. Must have seen To say that the BJP lost Karnataka because of Bommai’s misrule would be a travesty. When my colleagues and I were talking with people in Karnataka, we found that there is deep resentment among them about the prices of LPG cylinders, diesel, petrol and household items. Some of them even remembered how demonetisation was supposed to wipe out black money. they didn’t know amrit kaalWhich has brought him “unprecedented opportunities”.
Yes, he still has faith in PM Modi. But a narrative based on these claims that ordinary men and women have not experienced themselves is slowly proving counterproductive. This is the message Kannadigas have given through this assembly election. Those in BJP who have made their fortune by singing praises of Modi cannot get this. But PM Modi knows what message the Kannadigas have given him.
DK Singh is the political editor of ThePrint. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)