WASHINGTON: Russia has gathered at least 70 percent military firepower by the middle of the month for the presidency. Vladimir Putin Option to launch full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US officials say.
Officials who discussed internal assessments of the Russian buildup were not identified, suggesting a range of indicators Putin It intends to invade in the coming weeks, although the size and scale are unclear. He insisted that a diplomatic solution appeared possible.
Among those military indicators: an exercise by Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces that is usually held every fall, was rescheduled for mid-February to March. This coincides with what US officials see as the most likely window for an invasion.
Officials made no suggestion that a potential conflict would involve the use of nuclear weapons, but the Russian exercises – including test-launches of unarmed long-range missiles on Russian territory – were used as a message aimed at deterring the West. can be done in Intervention in Ukraine.
US officials have said in recent weeks that a Russian offensive could hit Ukraine’s military relatively quickly, although Moscow could find it difficult to maintain an occupation and deal with a potential insurgency.
The ongoing Russian buildup comes as the Biden administration is revealing intelligence in hopes of countering Russian propaganda and blocking Putin’s plans under the pretext of aggression. But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to support many of its claims.
On Saturday, The New York Times and The Washington Post said officials were warning that a full Russian offensive could lead to a quick capture of Kiev and potentially result in 50,000 casualties.
A US official confirmed that estimate to the Associated Press. But it is unclear how US agencies determined those numbers, and any predictions about how the invasion will proceed and the human costs it will cause are inherently uncertain given the war’s uncertainties.
President Joe Biden He has said that he will not send US troops to Ukraine to fight the war. However, he ordered additional forces, including combat troops, to Poland and Romania to reassure NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has US and allied military support and training.
Army officials announced on Saturday that Major General Christopher Donahue, Commanding General of the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived in Poland. About 1700 troops of the 82nd Airborne are stationed in Poland from Fort Bragg in North Carolina, and 300 from Bragg in Germany. Apart from this, 1,000 German soldiers are shifting to Romania.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Last week Putin said that Putin would use any part of the force gathered on Ukraine’s borders to carry out “coercive or provocative political acts” such as seizing Ukrainian cities and “critical areas” or the recognition of separate territories inside Ukraine. can do.
More recently, other US officials provided more detailed descriptions of the US approach to Russia’s continued force build-up, US assessments of the war’s prospects, and Putin’s approach to the crisis.
Officials reiterated what other Biden administration officials have been saying for weeks – that they do not believe Putin has made the final decision to invade Ukraine. But it appears possible that the Russian leader has set his intentions and is waiting until the last minute to proceed with the invasion.
Officials have over the past several months mapped the disposition of Russian forces deployed toward Ukraine’s borders, allowing Western officials to take a full-scale attack despite repeated claims by senior Russian officials that they do not intend to launch an unprovoked attack. See it as a threat of invasion. ,
As of Friday, officials said, the Russian military maintains a total of 83 “battalion tactical groups” near Ukraine, each roughly the size of a US battalion with between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. He said this is an escalation to the status of 60 Battalion Tactical Groups just two weeks ago.
Officials said another 14 battalion tactical groups were moving from other parts of Russia to the border area. Two officials said the US assesses that Russia wants between 110 and 130 battalion tactical groups in total for use in a full-scale offensive, but Putin may decide on a more limited infiltration.
Russia could aim to have 150,000 troops for a full-scale offensive, including support units, an official said, adding that the ongoing buildup could reach that level in the next few weeks.
Depending on Putin’s ultimate objective, Russian forces could attack Kiev directly, moving south from the current position in southern Belarus. Officials said it could also send troops across the Russian border into eastern and southern Ukraine if it intended to break through and destroy a large part of the Ukrainian military.
At the low end of the scale of military action, Putin could order sabotage, cyberattacks and other destabilizing actions inside Ukraine to overthrow the current government in Kiev, officials said.
Officials who discussed internal assessments of the Russian buildup were not identified, suggesting a range of indicators Putin It intends to invade in the coming weeks, although the size and scale are unclear. He insisted that a diplomatic solution appeared possible.
Among those military indicators: an exercise by Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces that is usually held every fall, was rescheduled for mid-February to March. This coincides with what US officials see as the most likely window for an invasion.
Officials made no suggestion that a potential conflict would involve the use of nuclear weapons, but the Russian exercises – including test-launches of unarmed long-range missiles on Russian territory – were used as a message aimed at deterring the West. can be done in Intervention in Ukraine.
US officials have said in recent weeks that a Russian offensive could hit Ukraine’s military relatively quickly, although Moscow could find it difficult to maintain an occupation and deal with a potential insurgency.
The ongoing Russian buildup comes as the Biden administration is revealing intelligence in hopes of countering Russian propaganda and blocking Putin’s plans under the pretext of aggression. But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to support many of its claims.
On Saturday, The New York Times and The Washington Post said officials were warning that a full Russian offensive could lead to a quick capture of Kiev and potentially result in 50,000 casualties.
A US official confirmed that estimate to the Associated Press. But it is unclear how US agencies determined those numbers, and any predictions about how the invasion will proceed and the human costs it will cause are inherently uncertain given the war’s uncertainties.
President Joe Biden He has said that he will not send US troops to Ukraine to fight the war. However, he ordered additional forces, including combat troops, to Poland and Romania to reassure NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has US and allied military support and training.
Army officials announced on Saturday that Major General Christopher Donahue, Commanding General of the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived in Poland. About 1700 troops of the 82nd Airborne are stationed in Poland from Fort Bragg in North Carolina, and 300 from Bragg in Germany. Apart from this, 1,000 German soldiers are shifting to Romania.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Last week Putin said that Putin would use any part of the force gathered on Ukraine’s borders to carry out “coercive or provocative political acts” such as seizing Ukrainian cities and “critical areas” or the recognition of separate territories inside Ukraine. can do.
More recently, other US officials provided more detailed descriptions of the US approach to Russia’s continued force build-up, US assessments of the war’s prospects, and Putin’s approach to the crisis.
Officials reiterated what other Biden administration officials have been saying for weeks – that they do not believe Putin has made the final decision to invade Ukraine. But it appears possible that the Russian leader has set his intentions and is waiting until the last minute to proceed with the invasion.
Officials have over the past several months mapped the disposition of Russian forces deployed toward Ukraine’s borders, allowing Western officials to take a full-scale attack despite repeated claims by senior Russian officials that they do not intend to launch an unprovoked attack. See it as a threat of invasion. ,
As of Friday, officials said, the Russian military maintains a total of 83 “battalion tactical groups” near Ukraine, each roughly the size of a US battalion with between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. He said this is an escalation to the status of 60 Battalion Tactical Groups just two weeks ago.
Officials said another 14 battalion tactical groups were moving from other parts of Russia to the border area. Two officials said the US assesses that Russia wants between 110 and 130 battalion tactical groups in total for use in a full-scale offensive, but Putin may decide on a more limited infiltration.
Russia could aim to have 150,000 troops for a full-scale offensive, including support units, an official said, adding that the ongoing buildup could reach that level in the next few weeks.
Depending on Putin’s ultimate objective, Russian forces could attack Kiev directly, moving south from the current position in southern Belarus. Officials said it could also send troops across the Russian border into eastern and southern Ukraine if it intended to break through and destroy a large part of the Ukrainian military.
At the low end of the scale of military action, Putin could order sabotage, cyberattacks and other destabilizing actions inside Ukraine to overthrow the current government in Kiev, officials said.
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