(By Clara Ferreira Marx: Bloomberg Opinion)
It seems that the worst has now happened in Ukraine. In a pre-dawn televised address, the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that it had ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing Ukraine. He blamed the US for crossing the “red lines”. He said Kiev would be responsible for any bloodshed. Reports of explosions and gunfire began immediately in cities across the country.
It is a dark moment for Russia, for Ukraine, for Europe – the darkest moment in Putin’s two decades. It is also a point of no return for Russia’s leader, and one with lasting consequences for the world.
Putin has fallen into the trap of dictators. Isolated, he is no longer able to weigh reality, but instead looks at his fears. He perceives Ukraine’s westward drift as a threat, and is obsessed with turning back the clock to reset the cold-world order. His Thursday speech – from Russia’s weakness at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union to a chilling warning against Iraq, Yugoslavia and Western intervention – was hardly the product of a sober, rational mind. It could not have been contrasted more sharply with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr ZelenskyEarlier ongoing appeals for peace were made directly to ordinary Russians. us President Joe Biden Russia’s actions were called “pre-planned war”.
Pride, paranoia, military audacity – a key combination, and one that has been fatal to dictators and their regimes. And Putin is starting a war that the Russians do not want, for which they will pay the cost.
Political scientist Daniel Treisman, in his study of the final acts of autocrats, found that most regimes ended through mistakes, whether they ignored change or, like Argentine general Leopoldo Galtieri, started a non-advisory war. . They invaded the Falklands in 1982, believing that Britain would not fight and that their population would unite behind them. He was misguided, and the fault was terminal.
Russia is not Argentina, and Putin will have no such immediate impact, no matter what. The increased repression at home is actually the most likely result of a display of this force abroad – either because the Kremlin can, or because it should be.
But over time the results may emerge, and the Russian president seems to be reconciled. Even by the standards of an oppressive authoritarian regime with a history of false flag operations and fabricated excuses for war – and masculine, reckless military activities and an autocrat to rewrite the past – the past A few days have been hard to understand. On Monday, an hour-long speech led to baseless allegations that portrayed Ukraine as the invention of Vladimir Lenin. Then a Security Council meeting was held with senior officials to publicly endorse Putin and recognize the separatist republics. Now, a war that bolsters credibility to the limit, Putin says, will “reject” Ukraine – a country that suffered brutally in World War II.
Furthermore, when the United Nations Security Council was meeting, he took his last step to avoid conflict.
What is notable here is not just Putin’s ambition, which is apparently just starting, a full-scale military campaign with little regard for the consequences, an attempt to destroy a neighbor and destabilize the region. Effort. It is also a measure of confusion when it comes to the threat posed by NATO and – crucially – its country’s long-term ability to bear the human and financial costs of separation. Yes, Moscow has built up central bank reserves and a war chest, but it is a country whose economy is stagnating, and which is already struggling to deal with a health crisis as Covid-19 is a pandemic. Runs through under-vaccinated populations.
To drive home the point, the West must now dramatically intensify sanctions, reaching far beyond individuals in Russia’s state banks – even though some alternatives now come at no cost to Europe and the rest of the world. Vladimir Putin has already started the war, but the Kremlin hawks did not want to. Now only the most difficult measures can stop it.
It seems that the worst has now happened in Ukraine. In a pre-dawn televised address, the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that it had ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing Ukraine. He blamed the US for crossing the “red lines”. He said Kiev would be responsible for any bloodshed. Reports of explosions and gunfire began immediately in cities across the country.
It is a dark moment for Russia, for Ukraine, for Europe – the darkest moment in Putin’s two decades. It is also a point of no return for Russia’s leader, and one with lasting consequences for the world.
Putin has fallen into the trap of dictators. Isolated, he is no longer able to weigh reality, but instead looks at his fears. He perceives Ukraine’s westward drift as a threat, and is obsessed with turning back the clock to reset the cold-world order. His Thursday speech – from Russia’s weakness at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union to a chilling warning against Iraq, Yugoslavia and Western intervention – was hardly the product of a sober, rational mind. It could not have been contrasted more sharply with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr ZelenskyEarlier ongoing appeals for peace were made directly to ordinary Russians. us President Joe Biden Russia’s actions were called “pre-planned war”.
Pride, paranoia, military audacity – a key combination, and one that has been fatal to dictators and their regimes. And Putin is starting a war that the Russians do not want, for which they will pay the cost.
Political scientist Daniel Treisman, in his study of the final acts of autocrats, found that most regimes ended through mistakes, whether they ignored change or, like Argentine general Leopoldo Galtieri, started a non-advisory war. . They invaded the Falklands in 1982, believing that Britain would not fight and that their population would unite behind them. He was misguided, and the fault was terminal.
Russia is not Argentina, and Putin will have no such immediate impact, no matter what. The increased repression at home is actually the most likely result of a display of this force abroad – either because the Kremlin can, or because it should be.
But over time the results may emerge, and the Russian president seems to be reconciled. Even by the standards of an oppressive authoritarian regime with a history of false flag operations and fabricated excuses for war – and masculine, reckless military activities and an autocrat to rewrite the past – the past A few days have been hard to understand. On Monday, an hour-long speech led to baseless allegations that portrayed Ukraine as the invention of Vladimir Lenin. Then a Security Council meeting was held with senior officials to publicly endorse Putin and recognize the separatist republics. Now, a war that bolsters credibility to the limit, Putin says, will “reject” Ukraine – a country that suffered brutally in World War II.
Furthermore, when the United Nations Security Council was meeting, he took his last step to avoid conflict.
What is notable here is not just Putin’s ambition, which is apparently just starting, a full-scale military campaign with little regard for the consequences, an attempt to destroy a neighbor and destabilize the region. Effort. It is also a measure of confusion when it comes to the threat posed by NATO and – crucially – its country’s long-term ability to bear the human and financial costs of separation. Yes, Moscow has built up central bank reserves and a war chest, but it is a country whose economy is stagnating, and which is already struggling to deal with a health crisis as Covid-19 is a pandemic. Runs through under-vaccinated populations.
To drive home the point, the West must now dramatically intensify sanctions, reaching far beyond individuals in Russia’s state banks – even though some alternatives now come at no cost to Europe and the rest of the world. Vladimir Putin has already started the war, but the Kremlin hawks did not want to. Now only the most difficult measures can stop it.
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