Reality check of opposition unity project

Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a second term in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the nation has seen a major churn in politics, both at the national and state levels. Many aspects related to Indian politics have seen a change, and many of the earlier concepts have become obsolete, although leaders and parties still find it difficult to shake their past qualities and beliefs. It is not that the nature of politics itself has changed, but that the mainstream parties – essentially those in opposition – are unable to understand the nature of the changes that are taking place.

ground reality

For example, the Congress is unable to break the belief that leading any opposition party is the obvious choice. While other parties may have acknowledged this in the past, increasingly, some of them have made it clear that they no longer see the Congress as a major player. However, assuming the party is there last fall, it would be a case of being unable to see the wood for the trees. For its part, the Congress still has a vote bank in various states of the country (a little over 20 in total). However, excessive laxity in future strategies is draining the party’s energy. It has not yet developed an alternative model to reverse the current trend.

editorial | Bandhan Sanskar: On Opposition Unity

The unpleasant truth (for the opposition) is that since 2014, when the BJP seized power, they have become divided, weak and ineffectual. Lack of a proper strategy, coupled with a reluctance on the part of individual opposition parties to realistically estimate their strengths and weaknesses, accept current reality, and demonstrate a willingness to support other opposition parties and groups, which have some degree of acceptance Maybe, this is the main reason why the opposition is seriously under stress today.

Of late, there seems to have been some degree of realism included in the debate, but not within the opposition parties themselves. Individual parties are yet to make a realistic estimate of their strengths and weaknesses. What has also been overlooked is that many parties are little known outside their states. Consequently, despite all the current discussions of opposition unity, apart from a strong dislike for the policies and attitude of the ruling party at the Centre, there is no common thread that binds them.

Of all the opposition parties, it is the Congress, which probably still has some acceptance across the country. However, it has not been able to convince other opposition parties that, even though its influence is limited to a few regions and regions today, it still has the intrinsic potential to emerge as a coordinator of opposition unity. While the smaller opposition parties are probably willing to accept it, the larger parties are unwilling to give the Congress a leadership role.

TMC. more about

This situation has existed for some time, but later, Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee has been openly fueling the opinion that Congress has become a dying organisation. After a landslide victory in the Bengal assembly elections earlier this year, Ms Banerjee seems to have played the role of uniting the opposition against the BJP, without formally declaring herself as its leader. While Ms Banerjee has been widely praised and ridiculed for the way she defeated the BJP in West Bengal, there is little evidence that the opposition is willing to unite under her umbrella. The greater problem is that instead of emphasizing opposition unity, his efforts are more directed at marginalizing the Congress. Thus, the opposition only seems more divided than before.

UPA’s way

Instead of putting forward a common story that the country might support as a counterpoint to the BJP’s single point rhetoric, today the opposition only looks confused. Moreover, all their differences are on public display today. With the TMC targeting the Congress, the Congress retaliated, accusing Ms Banerjee of having a ‘fascist mindset’ and being a ‘political opportunist’. TMC’s strategy of poaching MLAs from other parties, mainly Congress, is not helping matters. This display of split between the opposition has cast in what could be a promising start to the opposition unity launched recently (December 14, 2021) by Congress President Sonia Gandhi – on which the Nationalist Congress Party, CPI (M), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Shiv Sena and National Conference were present, but TMC was not. Therefore, instead of opposition unity, there is opposition unity in front of everyone.

Unless there is a desire for the death of the opposition in relation to unity, it is imperative that every constituent part accepts criticism of opposition unity. It should be kept in mind that each constituent party has certain inherent strengths that contribute to the overall potential and strength of any federation.

Of course, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is much weaker than before. The UPA ‘core’ which previously included the Congress, CPI and CPI(M) and some other secular democratic parties, has lost much of its strength since the first decade of this century, but it is far from a liability in the form of Mamata Banerjee. Is. Believe. It remains relevant, provided each component identifies what needs to be done – something along the lines of the modern day Common Minimum Programme.

For a start, all opposition parties in this group must admit that the balance of power has largely tilted in favor of the BJP, be it its shortcomings or the extent of its unhappiness with some of its policies. It is probably the only national level party which has an undisputed leader. Its politics – a mixture of majoritarianism and extreme nationalism – have found ready acceptance among large sections of the population, whether or not it is best suited to today’s conditions. In fact, the BJP has no equivalent rival. This situation may not be exactly visible to many opposition parties in the rear view mirror of politics, but it should induce some degree of restraint when reflecting on how opposition unity is to be achieved.

To achieve the desired level of unity, and hope for success, a joint opposition must not only accept the reality, but also the fact that contemporary policies are not a zero-sum game. The Congress, perhaps more than any other party in the opposition, needs to avoid clinging to images of the earlier period and ensure that the gap between it and potential allies does not widen. This may require dispelling many past notions, as well as clinging to impressions of a world that has since disappeared. Other opposition parties like TMC should not underestimate their strength just because of their success in one or two states. Instead, they should work hard to assemble and strengthen the alliance partnership with a view to building a strong phalanx against the BJP.

towards a construction

It will not be easy to defeat BJP. Any anti-BJP alliance will need the right set of partners – partners who can bring in additional votes and do not pose a risk to opposition unity. It would be a liquidation of false beliefs and perceptions – an alliance that could stand any sort of ‘stress test’ that the ruling BJP might be expected to employ to undermine opposition unity.

In the current circumstances, viable opposition unity is possible only when there is honest recognition in what can be termed as ‘spheres of influence’ of each party – TMC in Bengal, DMK in Tamil Nadu, Left in Kerala, Congress. Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh etc. Any hope of opposition unity will rest on the acceptance of this principle of ‘spheres of influence’. Within this construction, each party will have a certain superiority. Merely drumming up opposition unity against the ruling BJP is not enough, and is unlikely to produce results. In short, for the success of opposition unity there must be ‘rhetoric of change’ but [also] The reality of housing’ as Fareed Zakaria once said in a completely different context.

MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.