Reliance Industries Ltd., a major player across energy and telecom sectors, is set to announce its first-quarter earnings for 2024 on July 19. According to a regulatory filing, the company’s board of directors will meet to approve the standalone and consolidated financial results for Q1FY25. The results will be published post-market hours, at 3 PM. Following this board meeting, Reliance Industries will present its financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, to analysts and the media.
“…meeting of the board of directors of Reliance Industries of the Company is scheduled to be held on Friday, July 19, 2024, inter alia, to consider and approve the standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results of the Company for the quarter ended June 30, 2024,” stated Reliance Industries in a regulatory filing.
A presentation to analysts and the media will occur on the same day after the meeting, further elaborated in the statement.
Key areas to watch in the quarterly results
Analysts will be closely monitoring several aspects of RIL’s performance:
O2C Segment: The impact of lower Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) on profitability will be scrutinized.
Telecom Segment: Updates on subscriber additions and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth.
Retail Segment: Footfall metrics and store additions will be of interest.
5G Rollout: Any announcements related to the progress of 5G deployment and the effects of recent tariff hikes on future earnings.
Expert expectations
Abhishek Jain, head of research at Arihant Capital, forecasts robust performance in RIL’s B2C retail segment, especially from Jio. He expects EBITDA to reach approximately ₹14,250 crore, marking a 4.4% improvement QoQ. Core retail revenue is anticipated to grow by 11-12% to around ₹50,100 crore, with a 3% QoQ increase in EBITDA.
“We are looking at a consolidated EBITDA of about ₹39,900 crore. RIL’s investments in new ventures, especially renewable energy, will be crucial to watch. These investments signal the company’s strategic shift towards sustainable growth. Moreover, the anticipated demerger could be a positive move for investors, potentially unlocking further value,” said Jain.
Brokerage insights
Nuvama Institutional Equities projects a 10% year-on-year (YoY) rise in Reliance Industries’ revenue but expects profits to remain flat.
“We anticipate a modest nearly 4% YoY rise but a 7% QoQ fall in RIL EBITDA because of relatively strong performance across oil and gas, retail and Jio but weak oil-to-chemicals. We expect oil-to-chemicals EBITDA to fall 11% YoY and 19% QoQ on weak refining and petrochemicals,” said Nuvama.
Nuvama also expects RIL’s oil and gas segment EBITDA to rise nearly 30% YoY but fall 8% QoQ due to increased production from the KG-D6 block offset by a 20% YoY dip in deep-water gas prices.
“Retail EBITDA may remain strong (up 20% YoY and 3% QoQ) on higher footfalls. Jio’s EBITDA is likely to rise 11% YoY and 3% QoQ on a high subscriber base (up 8% YoY and 1% QoQ). ARPU will likely rise by 2% YoY and 1% QoQ,” added Nuvama.
On the contrary, Kotak Institutional Equities predicts a nearly 8% QoQ decline in RIL’s consolidated EBITDA due to weak O2C performance and muted growth in digital services and organised retail. They expect RIL’s standalone EBITDA to decline nearly 15% QoQ on weaker refining margins, partly offset by a modest improvement in petrochemical spreads.
In exploration and production (E&P), Kotak forecasts a nearly 4% QoQ decline in EBIT due to marginally lower realisation and production.
For Jio, Kotak anticipates a 2% QoQ increase in EBITDA due to nearly 9.4 million overall net subscriber adds and blended ARPU flat at ₹182. The retail segment’s EBITDA may see a modest 2% QoQ increase, driven largely by increased store footprint and operating leverage, according to Kotak.