Rising Food Prices: On Building Up Underlying Inflationary Pressures

Indian families find themselves once again struggling to cope Big jump in prices of kitchen essentials The staple food items range from tomatoes, onions and potatoes to arhar dal and rice. Tomato prices doubled month-on-month and the all-India average retail price rose to ₹53.59 per kg on June 29 from ₹24.37 on May 29, data from the Consumer Affairs Department’s Price Monitoring Division showed. . And while the rise in onion and potato prices is far more benign at 7.5% and 4.5%, respectively, in the same one-month period, the overall trajectory in price increases in the broader food basket is symptomatic of a volatile build-up of underlying inflationary pressures in the economy. For example, the price of arhar dal, a major source of protein in the diet of vegetarian households, has been on the rise; It had increased 7.8% month-on-month to ₹130.75 per kg on June 29, according to government data. Official retail inflation data for May released earlier this month showed that prices of pulses, including toor dal, rose 128 basis points year-on-year to a 31-month high of 6.56%. The imposition of stock limits on urad and tur by the government on June 2 has not helped much to bring down the rise in lentil prices so far.

To be sure, prices of agricultural produce have a seasonal component and their supply is largely determined by factors including the time of harvest and the prices prevailing in the mandis when farmers take their crops to the markets. Only last month, tomato growers in rural Maharashtra dumped their produce in large quantities on the roads after being offered unremunerative prices. Although the prices of many of these food items, including tomatoes, are still significantly higher than the same period last year, according to the government’s Agmarket website, daily weighted average arrival prices in mandis show that tomato prices year-on-year. The year has almost tripled. 5,579 per quintal per annum on June 29. The same arrival price data shows a 35% increase in arhar dal and a 19% increase in common paddy (rice). With monsoon rains deficient by 13% so far this year, and the outlook for spatial and temporal distribution in the coming months clouded with uncertainty by El Niño, there is a real risk that retail inflation due to food prices may accelerate again Can Policymakers need to walk the talk and remain focused on containing inflation. After all, as economists at the Reserve Bank of India put it in the latest bulletin, “the path to high but sustainable inclusive growth must be paved by price stability”.