Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked by a major Chinese failure

Putin has cleverly dragged Xi Jinping into a position that the Chinese president certainly did not wish for. That picture of them standing side by side for two days before the war would be interpreted as a sign of Sino-Russian collusion, or at least a Chinese green signal for a Russian offensive.

Still, there is no reason to believe that Beijing was fully aware of Putin’s plans. While a grand declaration of partnership and cooperation was made, there was no reference to Ukraine in their joint statement. The grievance against the expansion of NATO was buried deep inside. In January, Xi wrote to Ukraine’s president that he attached “great importance” to the China-Ukraine strategic partnership. Until Putin’s speech recognizing Ukraine’s two separatist regions, Chinese diplomats had referred to the Minsk Agreements. Until the invasion, he had called for de-escalation through dialogue and negotiation. After all, China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner and Kiev was a signatory to Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing has also long sought technologies such as advanced aircraft engines that Ukraine controls. China’s position was put forward by its ambassador in Kiev, who a few weeks ago declared support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Broadly speaking, China prefers a world where the US, UK and EU are divided and seeks to attract developing countries and its vision of a new global order. While China is challenging the US for global supremacy, Beijing does not see bipolarity and a new Cold War as being in its best interest – yet.

Unfortunately for Xi, Putin jumped the gun. He tore the Minsk treaties that the Chinese held so much diplomatic stock and invaded a country whose sovereignty Beijing had publicly committed to uphold. He showed that being a BRI member you only get Chinese credit and infrastructure, and you cannot rely on Beijing to survive. The only thing Putin did to assuage Chinese sensibilities was to wait for the Winter Olympics to end before attacking. China’s confused diplomats find themselves grasping for something wise to say after Putin took over two Ukrainian territories. Having said the usual things, they could only manage to criticize Western intervention in this matter.

So, at this point, China is forced into a position where it cannot explicitly support the Russian invasion, but cannot oppose it either. It may criticize Western sanctions for being unilateral on Russia, but does nothing to prevent their imposition. It cannot avoid providing economic aid to Russia. Nor stop Putin from doing what he wants.

It is not only an embarrassment for Xi ahead of the Communist Party of China session later this year where he is expected to secure another term, it is a damaging indictment of his foreign policy.

To the extent that China removes sanctions pressure from Russia, it will oppose the US and the European Union. Beijing cannot afford to lose access to the European technology ecosystem and markets as well. To the extent that Western sanctions affect Russia’s global trade, Chinese financial institutions and firms will be affected. To the extent that China opposes sanctions at the United Nations, other countries will see it as an aggressor.

However, Putin’s greatest gift to his opponents is to promote their solidarity. In 2020, pessimistic policymakers at the Munich Security Conference were considering “westlessness” amid widening trans-Atlantic divisions. Today the West is back and NATO has a new pursuit of purpose. A more consolidated, west-facing front than China. If Xi’s actions of the past decade led to a rival alliance in the Indo-Pacific in the form of the Quad and the Ocus, Putin’s invasion could renegotiate NATO. made alive.

It is possible that some in the West would expect Beijing to be involved and split the Sino-Russia partnership. This will likely prove fruitless, as Xi has made countering the US his fundamental foreign policy goal. It is also possible that some would assume that Russia has diverted Western resources away from the Indo-Pacific. They too will probably be proven wrong because a West that is on a war footing will allocate more resources overall to defense.

Thus, Xi is making a drastic move between criticizing the West and discouraging Russia from moving forward. While Putin is shaking that rope vigorously.

Nitin Pai is the co-founder and director of the Taxila Institution, an independent center for research and education in public policy.