Bengaluru: One study found that if current fossil fuel practices continued without intervention, more than 40 percent of all land vertebrates would be exposed to extreme heat events before the end of the century. published Wednesday in the journal Nature.
Down Common Socio Economic Pathways (SSP) 8.5 – Scenario of a sustained increase in temperature following current emissions trends – By the year 2099 the world is expected to be at least 4.4°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. Central India among other places is at great risk. for frequent extreme thermal events under this particular scenario.
The SSP is a set of future scenarios that offer a comprehensive view of what the world could look like without future climate policy. The SSP integrates a different set of population, economic growth, and other socioeconomic assumptions into future emissions scenarios.
This increase in temperature would expose 31.1 percent of mammals, 25.8 percent of birds, 55.5 percent of amphibians, and 51 percent of reptiles—which together make up 41 percent of land vertebrates—to extreme thermal events never before experienced by species. Amphibians and reptiles are most at risk compared to birds and mammals.
Extreme heat events are periods where temperatures exceed a historical threshold. These events are becoming increasingly common compared to historical weather and climate records. Increasingly worsening with each passing year, such extreme events put immense pressure on infrastructure and lives.
On average, 3,773 species or more than 11.2 percent of land vertebrates will experience extreme heat for more than half the year. Sustained and severe thermal stress causes a number of physiological and psychological changes in animals, resulting in reduced reproductive rates, reduced fitness and even death.
The authors stress the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to preserve biodiversity.
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consequences for humans
The findings fill a major gap in understanding which species and which locations are most prone to the consequences of extreme temperatures on biological systems and warn of substantial threats to future biodiversity around the world.
Under heat stress, the human body (and that of other animals) loses its ability to cool properly through sweating, which leads to a rapid rise in temperature within the body and damage to the brain and organs. This can result in heat exhaustion, heat stroke, rashes, decreased overall health and decreased productivity. For animals, this can cause an increase in mortality.
it is thought By the end of the century, many places – notably India and sub-Saharan Africa – will have 30–40 days a year when humans need not be outside for any length of time.
However, the short term effects on animal populations dealing with heat stress and heat loss in general have not been widely assessed in the academic literature.
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scenario based result
In the study, a team of scientists from Israel and the US mapped the exposure of 33,600 land vertebrates, about 90 percent of land vertebrates, to extreme heat events under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
These scenarios are SSP 1.9 (1.9°C rise from pre-industrial times by 2100 with very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions), SSP 2.6 (low GHG emissions), SSP 4.5 (intermediate GHG emissions), SSP 7.0 (high ) GHG emissions), and SSP 8.5 (very high GHG emissions continuing present-day fossil fuel trends).
The researchers projected the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme thermal events between 1950 and 2099.
Under the SSP 8.5 scenario, where global temperatures will increase by a minimum of 4.4 °C and a maximum of 8.5 °C from pre-industrial times, they found that 41 percent of species would experience extreme thermal events in all three metrics. This would affect at least half of the land distribution for terrestrial vertebrates.
For intermediate to high scenarios (3.6 °C), this number is likely to drop to 28 percent and to 6.1 percent for low emissions scenarios (limiting warming to 1.8 °C).
The paper said, “As the planet enters a new state of climate, in which extreme temperatures that were once thought to be rare become the norm, it is critical to establish conservation practices that reduce the effects of heat extremes and deals with it.”
The scientists suggest that the establishment or protection of microorganisms, open water sources that mitigate the effects of short-term heat stress, or remodelling, are necessary to maintain the integrity of communities after extreme events.
“Importantly, we find strong effects of SSP scenarios on impacts on land vertebrates, with warming below 2 °C preventing risk entirely in many regions. Our study, therefore, explores the effects of extreme heat on biodiversity.” stresses the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in reducing the magnitude of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for international cooperation to reduce the magnitude of climate change,” the authors conclude in their paper.
(Editing by Therese Sudeep)
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