Talking to Russia: On Putin and NATO

The Geneva talks between the United States and Russia were, not surprisingly, inconclusive. It was practically impossible for pre-Cold War rivals to work out their differences in the first round of talks, when tensions were rising in Europe, particularly over Ukraine. But the fact that the two powers had hurried talks and agreed to continue talks to discuss both the expansion of NATO and the mobilization of Russia’s military is a welcome move in itself. America was actually forced to come to the table by President Vladimir Putin, who About 100,000 troops gathered on Russia’s border with Ukraine, The Kremlin has also issued a series of demands to the West that seek to halt further expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe and bring the coalition’s military presence back to 1990 levels. The standoff now is that the US has publicly stated that it will not close NATO’s doors to potential future members. And no one knows what Mr. Putin will do if the talks fail. By forcing the US to come to the table to discuss NATO expansion, an issue Moscow has been complaining about for years, Mr Putin has won the first. But it would be nave for them to believe that the Russian demands would be accepted by the West without any resistance. So the challenge for both sides is to find a common ground.

The source of Russia’s staunch opposition to NATO is its deep insecurity. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the significantly weakened Russian Federation saw NATO’s continued expansion into Eastern Europe as a violation of the post-Cold War consensus. Russia responded militarily in 2008 when Georgia was considering joining NATO, and in 2014, annexed Crimea from Ukraine after protests against the pro-Russian regime in Kiev. The West, on the other hand, sees Russia as an aggressive, abrasive and destabilizing giant running down the neck of Europe. Finally, both NATO expansion and Russia’s military response are driving instability in Eastern Europe. Finding a solution to the crisis will not be easy. It depends on whether the two sides are able to break out of their cold war mentality and instil mutual trust in bilateral ties. For all practical purposes, Ukraine and Georgia, both facing separatist conflicts, may not join NATO in the near future. NATO can use this reality as a policy promise to calm Russian nerves. Mr Putin, on the other hand, is also in a difficult position. Russia is still grappling with the economic cost of its annexation of Crimea, which has left a wide gap in Russia’s relations with Europe. Further aggression on Ukraine could serve its strategic interests but could deal a fatal blow to any plans to get Russia-Europe relations back on track. War is not in anyone’s interest. Russia and the West should keep this in mind as they sit down for the next round of talks.