Spells of poverty were not rare during the pandemic, and lower castes and minorities bore the brunt
Spells of poverty were not rare during the pandemic, and lower castes and minorities bore the brunt
Few observations stand the test of time. Less importance is gained over time. Engel’s law is an example. One version is that the poorer a family is, “the greater the proportion of total expenditure that must be used for food. The ratio of expenditure to food, other things being equal, is the best measure of the physical standard of living of a population. “Based on this law, we aim to examine the spells of poverty during the pandemic in India. Our analysis is based on the CMIE Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (January 2019-August 2021).
It is not only the food expenditure that varies but the diet also differs. The caste-based hierarchy is at the top in India, with Brahmins and other upper castes at the top, and Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) at the bottom. Traditionally, Brahmins are vegetarians, while SCs and STs are not. On average, Hindus in India are in a better position than Muslims. While many Hindus are vegetarians, many also eat meat except beef. Muslims are non-vegetarian and are allowed to eat all types of meat except pork.
Food stocks rise
The shock of the pandemic broke the food supply chain and caused a drop in food demand, resulting in loss of income. Nevertheless, the subsistence food requirements had to be met. Amid the crisis, speculative hoarding by food vendors and ‘panic buying’ by consumers pushed up food prices. The lockdown resulted in a sharp increase in the share of food in rural and urban India and across all socioeconomic groups with different castes and religions, but at different rates.
Among scheduled caste households in rural areas, the share of meals ranged from 46% to 54% before March 2020. However, in April 2020 it increased to around 64% with the first national lockdown. Similar trends were observed in STs, Other Backward Classes (OBC) and others. In urban areas, it was the OBCs and others who saw a sharp increase. One of the reasons for the contrasting results in rural and urban India could be home-cooked food by the upper castes in urban areas – forced lifestyle changes by the lockdown and fear of the pandemic.
Once the restrictions were lifted, there was a sharp drop in food share across all groups. While this decline continued into August 2021, the food share was still higher than pre-pandemic levels. However, the extent of contraction differed between rural and urban areas and between different castes. For example, the fastest contraction was recorded in the food portion of SC, followed by others, ST and OBC. In urban areas, ST declined the most, followed by others, SC and OBC.
During the peak of the first wave (September 2020), food expenditure shares declined across all households in urban areas. In rural areas, SCs and STs saw a rise in food stocks despite easing of restrictions. Soon thereafter, food stocks declined across all castes until November 2020, followed by a slightly sharper increase, which peaked during the second wave, particularly in urban areas.
Various religious groups also experienced a sharp increase in the share of food expenditure in both rural and urban areas. Before March 2020, the share of food in rural Hindu households ranged from 44% to 52% and in urban Hindu households from 40% to 49%. These shares rose to over 61 per cent and over 59 per cent respectively in April 2020. Before the first lockdown, the share of Muslims in rural areas ranged from 48% to 58% and in urban areas from 45% to 52%. They increased to around 66% and 62% respectively in April 2020. The increase was almost twice that of rural areas. At the start of the pandemic, urban areas were more affected than rural areas in terms of rising COVID-19 cases, which could lead to a greater variation in food budget expenditures in urban households. After April 2020, stocks declined gradually until November 2020, with a steady rise in all religions in both rural and urban areas during the second wave, with shares peaking in May 2021.
Nothing can be definitively predicted about the impact of the third wave, except that it was less severe than the previous waves. Thus it is unlikely that food stocks may rise marginally as the informal sector and employment remained sluggish and the food supply chain was not fully restored.
The high food grain share is worrying for three reasons: substandard cereals in place of costly cereals; Small amounts are spent on more nutritious foods, such as fruits and vegetables; And other essential non-food items like education and health care are neglected. Thus, spells of poverty were no less during the pandemic, and lower castes and minorities bore the brunt. The budget (2022-23) is a mixed bag as it seeks to spur growth through investment, but ignores the lack of aggregate demand, especially among the underprivileged. Whether it is a lack of sensitivity to the plight of the underprivileged or a misguided development strategy of development or perhaps both needs a deeper investigation.
Nidhi Kakar Assistant Professor of Management, Ambedkar University, Delhi; Ashi Gupta is a doctoral student in economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi; and Raghav Gaha Research Affiliate, Population Aging Research Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia