The global war on terrorism is going on simultaneously

Two decades after 11 September 2001When al-Qaeda carried out its most audacious attacks ever on American soil, leading to the global War on Terror and the invasion of Afghanistan by the United States, it may be worthwhile to do a fact check on the outcome. Even more so given the latest turn of events that has seen the Taliban return to Afghanistan, raising the question of whether the global war on terror was a failure. Also, is there a lesson to be learned from this?

an approach

In retrospect, it is possible to infer that the 9/11 attacks were the sum total of a series of systemic and structural deficiencies in the US security establishment. Rarely mentioned, it was also, perhaps, a failure of the human imagination. No one in the American establishment could have imagined an attack of this scale could happen. It is not clear whether security agencies in the US and elsewhere are in a better position today.

Historians speculate that Osama bin Laden’s actions were as much geopolitical as they were motivated by religious motives, and that he suffered from ‘Muslim suffering’ in many remote areas. He believed – erroneously – that delivering a decisive blow against America by an action like 9/11 would force America to change its policies in many areas of the conflict.

Osama bin Laden failed to succeed in his attempt, and over time al-Qaeda faced the wrath of not only America, but the rest of the world. Osama bin Laden’s aim to destroy the ‘myth of American invincibility’ failed, but since then, the world has seen a long period of uncertainty as well as the birth of many more terrorist groups around the world. However, the global war on terrorism neutralized the apprehension that terrorism is set to cause massive destruction across the globe.

Several reasons can be attributed to bin Laden’s failure. It appears that bin Laden and other leaders associated with al-Qaeda such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, other jihadist leaders such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of Islamic State (IS) or Mukhtar Abu Zubair of al-Shabaab, all have such initiatives. lacked the centrality of vision or power needed to maintain the momentum. Furthermore, while in the early stages, Afghanistan – and to a lesser extent, Pakistan – provided safe havens (which simultaneously provided powerful unifying forces for different groups in the presence of many different terrorist groups) ), the situation changed after providing safe haven. Heaven was no longer available. In addition, over time the movement’s leaders’ lack of visibility and less authority also contributed to the spread of terror and the potential for extremism and violence to perpetuate.

constant challenge

However, the two decades of the global war on terrorism did not end terrorism. Despite the loss of leadership, including leaders such as bin Laden and al-Baghdadi, and despite organizational fragmentation and regional decline, terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and IS continue to present challenges today. It has been difficult to obtain rigorous intelligence on myriad terror modules, and the absence of a single corps for al-Qaeda or IS is making it even more difficult to assess the true nature of the threat. It would be tempting for intelligence agencies to think that current low-tech attacks, involving small arms, the occasional use of improvised explosive devices and random ‘lone wolf’ attacks reflect the weakening of terrorist modules, including al-Qaeda. Is. Nothing can be more confusing than this. Not only major terror groups but also smaller terror modules currently have the potential for both sophisticated and mass casualty attacks.

Therefore, history is more relevant and important when assessing future threats such as terrorism. The sheer prevalence achieved by radical Islam in recent decades has in no way been dissipated. Terrorism stemming from a mix of religious fervor and fundamentalist motives is still alive. The new breed of terrorists may be less familiar with the teachings of the Egyptian, Sayyid Qutb or Palestinian, Abdullah Azzam, but they are well-versed in the practical modalities: Jalaluddin and Sirajuddin Haqqani (the latter is a minister in the interim Afghan government), Hafiz Saeed of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Maulana Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) etc. Therefore, it is possible to predict that despite some temporary setbacks. The Global War on Terrorism, the broader framework of terrorism, especially Islamic terrorism, is largely the same.

a serious warning

The Taliban’s withdrawal in Afghanistan, after humiliating the combined forces of the US, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Afghan Armed Forces, is a grim warning for the neighborhood. Apart from giving a new life and a new thrust to radical Islam, it comes at a time when the democratic world is displaying a hunger to move away from its own ‘places’ to fight terror, thus making the region The army has been left open. Terror Inc., of which the Taliban is an essential entity. Many terrorist groups that have different capabilities such as Al-Qaeda, IS, Daesh across Asia, Lashkar in India, JeM and TRF (Resistance Front, which is backed by LeT), Al-Shabaab in Africa, etc., feel energetic. and are sure to gain a new lease of life.

in India

Emerging signs of what to expect in Afghanistan can already be seen, as its capital, Kabul, has been ravaged by a series of bombings, reflecting a more intense inter-sectarian conflict in which ‘ Prairie Fire has the potential to become. Closer to home, Kashmir is witnessing a new wave of terror attacks, bringing back grim memories of the 1990s. The targeted killings of minorities have started shocking not only in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), but also in many other parts of the country. Given the current scenario, the dice are heavy against India, J&K is in the cross-hairs of several terror groups, and further complicated by Pakistan’s attempts to aid and incite them through the use of its ‘regular’. Sirajuddin Haqqani, a Pakistani acolyte, holds a key position in Afghanistan’s new interim government, making it easier for hostile forces in the region for India, essentially for Pakistan, to wage an ‘undeclared war’ against India.

While the past is often a good guide to the future, it is even more important to recognize the paradigm shifts that have begun in the practice of violence in different parts of the world in understanding how terror may manifest in the future. The emerging nature of terrorist and terrorist attacks in the times to come is likely to be very different from what many experts have predicted today. While ‘zero-day’ attacks such as New York (9/11) and Mumbai (26/11) are still very much on the drawing board of terrorist groups, it is also known that a new breed of terrorists are experimenting with new forms. Is. Panic, especially the possibility of ‘enabled or remote controlled panic’. This is a frightening prospect.

Forms of terror of the ‘new age’

Intelligence and terror experts must begin to anticipate how to deal with ‘new age terrorists’ recruited on the Internet, who will then be guided through various stages over a sustained period of time by anonymous operatives located elsewhere. This is not science fiction. There is already evidence for the existence of remote controllers that select targets, the actual operative, the nature of the attack, and even the weapons used, operating behind a wall of oblivion. Internet-enabled terrorism – an entirely new genre of terrorism – will be very different from what we have seen so far.

Associated with this is the threat posed by cyber-terrorism. Digital sabotage has already entered the arsenal of some terror groups. Cyber ​​sabotage is a distinct possibility in some situations today. It is well known that terrorist groups that have state support today have the ability to employ cyber techniques to conduct hostile attacks on another country’s ICT-enabled infrastructure. While these aspects are little talked about, the reality is that the limits of human imagination have become the virtual benchmark of terrorist threats today.

MK Narayanan is former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal