TeaThe economic impact of the Russo-Ukraine war is making analysts question the stability of the Belt and Road Initiative. But China has gained something from the disruption. The war has brought Russia to the negotiating table. And now Beijing wants to move forward with infrastructure projects in Central and West Asia, which were delayed because of the hesitation of the Kremlin.
China’s BRI has a new focus area – Eurasia. And Mongolia holds the key.
Construction work on the ‘Power of Siberia 2’ or Altai gas pipeline project – linking Siberia’s oil fields with China via Mongolia – will begin in 2024, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdin Luvsanmarai said. Told Financial Times on Monday. The gas pipeline project has become critical for Russia’s state-owned Gazprom, with Europe’s criticism of its member states dependent on Moscow’s energy supply. The company’s chief Alexey Miller said China would become Russia’s primary customer of oil and gas in the future.
Chinese experts and social media users widely discussed the Mongolian PM’s statement on the pipeline. After his interview, the hashtag “China-Russia natural gas pipeline project to start construction in 2024” started trending on Weibo.
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beyond mongolia
Mongolia finds itself caught up Russia and China could face difficulties in making payments on a $1.3 billion bond set to mature in 2023, and another $600 million to be paid in 2024.
Although Russia and China signed an $117.5 billion energy deal in February – just before Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Kyiv – the impact of the Ukraine war has given Beijing new confidence to pursue its plans.
Chinese experts have proposed ways to mitigate the challenge posed by the Ukraine war. In most regions of the world, BRI projects are struggling due to pandemics and wars. “If the battlefield situation becomes prolonged, the Belt and Road Initiative will need to be adjusted,” said Huang Renwei, executive vice dean of Fudan University’s Belt and Road and Global Governance Institute.
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China’s Eurasian Dreams
Celebrity professor Zhang Weiwei, who has the ear of the top Chinese leadership, wants to promote connectivity across the Eurasian landmass to enhance the balance of power.
“Today Eurasia hosts 75 percent of the world’s population, 60 percent of global GDP and 75 percent of known energy. China’s BRI and Russia’s ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’ could radiate to the entire Eurasian continent … I think Eurasian Most of the countries in the Eurasian Plate have agreed to promote cooperation between China and Russia in all aspects, to promote cooperation between different countries in the plate and the exchange of civilizations, and to achieve win-win cooperation. For, “ Told During “This is China” broadcast by Zhang dragon tv,
This is not the only project in Mongolia that China is pushing. After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway will begin in 2023. Although the proposed railway line will not pass through Russian territory, the country has been Russia’s traditional backyard. And this is where China is now trying to find an alternative route to its supply chain. The CKU will act as a route to Europe via Iran and Turkey, with a total length of 523 km.
New CKU Railway Project revived The ‘Middle Corridor’ potential for Europe, which was previously considered costlier than the land route through Russian territory. other Component The ‘middle corridor’ is the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway, another route that will rely heavily on Chinese suppliers to ship its goods to Europe.
Carrying goods through Russian territory was one of China’s grand axes under the BRI, but the war in Ukraine has forced Beijing to think of alternative routes to Europe. However, Chinese suppliers are wary of sending goods through Russian territory because sanctions imposed on the Kremlin.
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Russian field options
If Russia’s dependence on China increases, Beijing could swiftly implement its geostrategic plans in Eurasia, crossing the territory of the Kremlin.
“In this sense, we promote the development of the Chinese western region and the dual movement of the national economy. We not only have a continental channel connecting the whole of Eurasia, but also 18,000 kilometers of coastline to the mainland,” Professor Weiwei he said.
Chinese experts have proposed cooperation in the Eurasian region as an equal partnership between Russia and China. But due to the war in Ukraine, Russia is left with no option but to approve the projects that China wants to implement. The Kremlin has no influence over Beijing, which would shrink Russia’s sphere of influence to its backyard.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist, currently pursuing an MSc in International Politics with a focus on China from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a Chinese media reporter for the BBC World Service. He tweeted @aadilbrar. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Srinjoy Dey)